Toluca vs. Pumas UNAM prediction, odds, Liga MX picks [7/21/2026]
Get Toluca vs Pumas UNAM predictions for Liga MX Tuesday.
Toluca will square off with Pumas UNAM in Liga MX action on Tuesday, July 21, commencing at 11:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven Liga MX model predicts Toluca as the most likely winner of the Toluca vs. Pumas UNAM game.
This article offers further insights into the match, including best bets and picks.
Toluca vs. Pumas UNAM prediction: Who will win?
Our independent predictive model indicates a 56.1% chance of Toluca winning, a 21.4% chance for Pumas UNAM, and a 22.5% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 56.2% chance of going over, with a 55.5% likelihood that both teams find the net.
Toluca vs. Pumas UNAM odds
We have sourced the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Toluca | Pumas UNAM | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| -150 | +370 | +310 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -163 | +128 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Toluca vs. Pumas UNAM picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Moneyline: Pumas UNAM @ +370 via DraftKings
- Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +128 via DraftKings
According to our Liga MX best bets, the top play to make on this game is Pumas UNAM to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Toluca vs. Pumas UNAM: Correct score and BTTS predictions
The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| TOL 1-1 PUM | 10.6% |
| TOL 2-1 PUM | 9.9% |
| TOL 1-0 PUM | 9.9% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 55.5% chance of both Toluca and Pumas UNAM finding the net and a 44.5% chance that at least one doesn’t.
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, meaning the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.
Toluca vs. Pumas UNAM game-day updates and essential details
The game between Toluca and Pumas UNAM is scheduled to start at 11:00 PM ET on Tuesday, July 21, 2026.
- Who: Toluca vs. Pumas UNAM
- Date: Tuesday, July 21, 2026
- Time: 11:00 PM ET/8:00PM PT
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Toluca has a 56.1% win probability, Pumas UNAM has a 21.4% win probability, and there is a 22.5% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
