Find your edge with expert NFL prop bets today with data-driven analysis and insights on every game. Bet smarter with high-value NFL player props from Week 1 to the Super Bowl.
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Today's best NFL player prop bets
Our best player props focus on finding bets with an edge over the odds offered by major sportsbooks. We update our projections daily, utilizing advanced data models and 10,000 computer simulations per game.
Unlock all our best NFL player props today by subscribing to Dimers Pro.
What are NFL player props?
An NFL player prop is a proposition bet (or side bet) on a player’s individual performance, rather than team results like moneyline, spread, and total score (over/under). NFL prop bets vary depending on position and cover a range of outcomes, e.g., touchdowns scored, receiving yards, and rushing yards. Similar to game totals, you can bet over/for or under/against a prop bet.
NFL player props are a goldmine for smart bettors—and a fan favorite for good reason. With so many options on the board, you're not stuck betting on game results. You can ride or fade individual players instead. And because of the sheer volume of props, this is where sharp bettors often find the biggest market inefficiencies.
Our NFL best player props page is an expertly picked shortlist of wagers carrying positive expected value (+EV)—meaning the odds are in your favor and you’ll get extra returns if your bet wins.
Dimers’ NFL player props’ computer simulations and data modeling factor in the following:
Performance-based props: averages and player projections for passing yards, rushing attempts, receptions, touchdowns, and more.
Mismatch opportunities: distinct player advantages over the opposition, e.g., a star QB like Patrick Mahomes facing a weak pass defense.
Overlooked market movement: slow sportsbook adjustments for extra variables like late-breaking roster updates or weather conditions.
Dimers’ NFL best props flag the most valuable angles across every Sunday’s slate of games. With our prop picks, you’re not betting on star power—you’re betting on data.
Learn more about NFL player props in our how to bet on NFL guide.
How Dimers find the best NFL prop bets today
We don’t guess. Numbers talk and we listen. Our NFL props are powered by a data engine specifically designed to find statistical sports betting advantages:
Player-level simulations: we run state-of-the-art computer simulations on a player-by-player level. The betting model ingests statistical input, including matchups, scheme tendencies, and historical performance per prop.
Market line comparison: our engine monitors the lines posted by major sportsbooks and measures them against our proprietary projections in real-time.
Identifying the statistical edge: a prop is only marked as a “best prop” when our math has an advantage over the odds set by a sportsbook, i.e., they’ve set Derrick Henry’s rushing yards at 184.5, and our model has projected 192.5, so the odds stack up. Our engine has found clear value in the market, and you can cash in.
Find out more about Dimers’ methodology and data.
The most popular types of NFL prop bets
Sharp bettors with an eye for value focus on the following NFL prop markets:
Passing props: quarterback performance including total yards thrown, completed passes, attempted passes, and passing touchdowns. Based on matchup strength, game pace, and defensive coverage projections.
Rushing props: carries, yardage attempts and totals, longest rush, and rushing TDs for running backs and mobile quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen. Driven by offensive line statistics and red-zone playbook usage.
Receiving props: total receptions, receiving yards, and longest catch for wide receivers and versatile tight ends like Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews. Heavily influenced by target share for different coverages and down situations.
Touchdown scorer props: first, last, or anytime touchdown scorer. These rely on projected play-calling tendencies (i.e., 3rd and long) and goal-line opportunities (4th and inches).
Multiply your payout with our NFL parlay picker and combine multiple player props for bigger odds.
Unlock access to all best NFL player props by joining Dimers Pro.
Responsible gambling
Elite coaches know when to punt, and disciplined bettors know when to walk away. Dimers champions responsible betting habits and advocates for data-driven decision-making. We suggest establishing deposit and wager limits to ensure you bet responsibly while acknowledging the inherent risks. If you or someone you know is facing a gambling issue, we offer a comprehensive range of responsible gambling resources to provide support.
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Your Questions Answered
Where can I find the best NFL prop bets today?
Right here! Dimers updates our NFL best props page daily with up-to-date data and 10,000 computer simulations of each game. Our analytical models are built specifically to identify +EV prop bets with the highest value. We project the statistical likelihood of key props and calculate the edge against major sportsbooks.
How are your NFL player prop projections made?
We use a combination of advanced data modeling and computer simulations to calculate the truest probability of a prop’s outcome. The Dimers engine ingests data sets across individual player stats, historical matchup performance, recent form, injuries, pace of play, and more. Our analysis is thorough and in-house. These aren’t sit-and-hope projections; this is advanced data science specifically trained on determining player prop outcomes.
What is an "edge" in prop betting?
An edge is the percentile difference between the Dimers’ betting model’s projection and a sportsbook’s line. For example, let’s say one book is paying +110 on Ja’Marr Chase to record 6.5+ receptions in a game. Those odds suggest a 47.6% chance of success, but then our model estimates the true probability of Chase exceeding this prop is actually 65.6%. So you have an 18% edge on that bet hitting. As calculated by our model, the outcome is more likely than that sportsbook’s line implies, which means you’re getting extra value on that bet.
Is it better to bet on player props or game outcomes?
This is entirely up to you. An advantage of betting on player props is that since some players’ performance doesn’t draw as much public attention, there are more opportunities for value and edge over sportsbook lines. Whereas moneyline, spread, and game totals receive a lot of wagers, so their odds are generally sharper and more fine-tuned than some player props. If you’re looking for game outcomes with a strong edge, have a look at our NFL Best Bets.