NBA Championship Odds: Betting Landscape for 2023 NBA Playoffs
The 2022-23 NBA season was defined by parity, particularly amongst the league's upper echelon, so it's no surprise the field was wide open at the conclusion of the regular season. The day the 2023 NBA Play-In Tournament began, Dimers' predictive analytics model gave the Milwaukee Bucks (20.5%) and Boston Celtics (19.3%) nearly identical #1 and #2 shots at the 2023 NBA Championship, while oddsmakers were slightly more bullish on the Bucks, offering odds of +275 on a Milwaukee title, compared to +370 for Boston. According to the sportsbooks, the acquisition of Kevin Durant landed the Phoenix Suns the third most likely chance at an NBA Championship, with +500 odds; however, Dimers' model disagreed, placing Phoenix (7.2%) in seventh place on its NBA futures rankings, behind the Philadelphia 76ers (12.7%), Denver Nuggets (11.1%), Golden State Warriors (8.3%), and Memphis Grizzlies (8.2%).
Understanding the NBA Futures Market
The “NBA futures market” technically refers to the odds offered by sportsbooks for any future NBA postseason outcome. This page, however, pertains specifically to the winner of this year's NBA Championship. Here, you'll find current sportsbook odds for the NBA title, and Dimers' projections for each team's likelihood of winning it all, represented as a percentage.
To make prudent futures wagers, bettors should carefully analyze sportsbook odds and their implied probabilities to identify good value. For instance, taking futures bets on teams with very long odds may seem like a good value proposition, but it can be illusory. If a team has a less than a 1% chance of winning the championship, which is often the case with long-odds wagers, a bettor could still be getting suboptimal value by taking a wager with an enormous potential payout, even if those long odds seem enticing.
On the other hand, futures odds can be highly favorable. For instance, as of April 12, 2023, the Memphis Grizzlies had futures odds of +2400 to win the 2023 NBA Championship, implying a 4% probability of a Memphis victory. However, the Dimers' model projected the Grizzlies' likelihood of winning the NBA Championship at 8.2%, meaning bettors who took Memphis at +2400 would be in line for a payout more than twice as large as what the Dimers' model indicates would be a fair value in the event of a Grizzlies NBA Championship.
NBA Championship Odds Movement: How the Lines Change as the NBA Playoffs Progress
As the NBA playoffs progress from one round to another, the odds for each team are likely to fluctuate, sometimes significantly. Several factors, including the team's performance in the playoffs, can contribute to these changes in odds, leading to optimism or pessimism regarding NBA title hopes. Another key factor that affects the NBA championship futures market is changes in the playoff picture. For instance, if top contenders such as the Milwaukee Bucks or Boston Celtics were to be eliminated in an early round, the futures odds for virtually every other team remaining in the NBA playoffs would improve significantly, as a major roadblock would no longer stand in their way.
For NBA futures bettors, it's crucial to keep a close eye on these odds movements. However, it's equally important to keep in mind that odds are largely influenced by public sentiment, and the public is not always correct. This is where Dimers' NBA futures projections enter the fold: NBA bettors should be sure to cross reference each team's odds with Dimers' predictions before laying any NBA futures wager.
NBA Championship Odds: Where to Find the Latest Lines and Updates
Dimers offers a diverse range of tools for NBA bettors looking to stay informed on the latest odds and updates surrounding the NBA playoffs, including daily NBA predictions for almost every game, as well as our database on NBA trends, and NBA props.
Further, Dimers' team of NBA experts regularly publish informative news and analysis to keep you up to date on anything and everything related to the NBA playoffs, all of which can be found on our NBA news page. Our NBA best bets and NBA best odds pages are frequently updated to provide insights on the latest odds and maximize your chances of beating the bookmakers.