World Cup futures built on probability, not speculation
The FIFA World Cup 2026 introduces a 48-team field hosted across the United States, Canada, and Mexico—a structural change that calls for a more sophisticated approach to futures analysis.
Our World Cup futures model simulates every match of the tournament 10,000 times, reflecting real fixtures, updated qualification pathways, and the revised rules that govern third-place advancement. This framework gives a clearer picture of each nation's probability to progress, reach key milestones, or lift the trophy—something only a simulation at scale can capture.
Here, history also matters. Nations with strong World Cup pedigrees—such as Argentina, Germany, Brazil, and France—carry performance weight, but the model remains grounded in recent, relevant results.
How our World Cup futures model works
Dimers' World Cup futures engine is distinct from our World Cup predictions model and is purpose-built for full-tournament simulation.
The methodology includes:
- Simulation of all playoff tournaments to determine which of the remaining nations qualify
- Dynamic allocation of those teams into their official groups once qualification is confirmed
- Team ratings informed by 15+ years of international match data
- Emphasis on competitive fixtures such as World Cups and continental tournaments
- Consideration of opponent strength, squad expectations, and potential home-field advantages
Each simulated match produces win/loss/draw probabilities and projected goal outcomes. When a nation wins the World Cup in, say, 1,561 of 10,000 simulations, we assign a 15.61% chance of that outcome.
The model updates periodically leading into the tournament and throughout its duration.
Explore more World Cup analysis
Our futures model sits alongside a suite of insights designed for fans and bettors, including our World Cup best bets and the latest World Cup news.
For official fixtures and tournament details, visit the FIFA World Cup 2026 site.
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