Men's College Basketball Player Projections Today

CBB player projections for today's games

A college basketball player prop is one number on one stat. Sportsbooks, DFS platforms, and prediction markets set the lines and prices themselves. Either way, you're judging someone else's number, and it helps to have your own. 

Building that number means a stat line for every player who's guaranteed to playing time, with each stat category adjusted for his minutes and the defense in front of him. Do that by hand for one conference's Tuesday night, and you'll still be typing at the first tip.

That’s why we built a model that does the homework for you. Our CBB player projections forecast stats for players with confirmed minutes. This includes their recent and longer-term production and today’s matchup. 

Our model only projects players with expected minutes. Outside of March Madness, most games don't have confirmed game time for every player.

Three players are free every day, and Dimers Pro unlocks every player on the board.

How to read our college basketball player projections

Each row shows the player, his team, the matchup, and 11 projected numbers. The first seven come straight from our model, and the last four are built from them:

• PTS (Points): Points the player is projected to score.
• REB (Rebounds): Offensive and defensive rebounds combined.
• AST (Assists): Projected assists. A dime is an assist, which is where we got our name.
• 3PM (3-Pointers Made): Made threes, not attempts.
• BLK (Blocks): Shots the player is projected to block.
• STL (Steals): Projected steals.
• TO (Turnovers): Times the player is projected to give the ball away.
• PRA (Points + Rebounds + Assists): The three added together.
• PR (Points + Rebounds): Points and rebounds added together.
• PA (Points + Assists): Points and assists added together.
• DFS (Daily Fantasy Score): One fantasy score built from the projected stats.

Projections carry decimals because they're expectations, not box scores. No player has ever finished a game with 6.4 rebounds. Combined columns are added before rounding, so PRA can sit a tenth away from the three columns added up.

College basketball DFS projections and fantasy basketball

Our college basketball DFS projections fold each player's projected stats into one fantasy score, so a rebounder and a shooter sit on the same scale. It's the number to compare when you're looking across a slate for value.

Salary turns it into a lineup decision. A player projected for 30.0 fantasy points at a $6,000 salary works out to 5.0 points per $1,000, and a $4,500 player projected for 25.0 works out to 5.6. We don't project salaries or ownership, so those come from the DFS site you play on.

For season-long college basketball fantasy projections, the stat columns do more work than the DFS score, since your league's scoring decides what each stat is worth.

With Dimers Pro, you can download the full table as a CSV for your own spreadsheet or lineup optimizer. If you’re still choosing where to play, our guide to DFS sites compares them.

How our model builds college basketball player projections

Our college basketball player projections come from the same model as our College Basketball Player Props, and they're its raw output. The model works player by player, separate from the team-level model behind our game predictions. It projects points, rebounds, assists, 3-pointers made, steals, blocks, and turnovers for every player with expected minutes. We build all these stat projections from four inputs:

• Historical performance: Recent form and longer-term production, so one big night doesn't pass for a new baseline.
• Playing time: Expected minutes, which is how injuries and lineup changes reach the projection.
• Matchup context: Opposition strength and positional matchups.
• Market validation: Our projections compared with public markets.

PRA, PR, and PA add those projections together, and the DFS score is built from them, so every number in the table traces back to the same seven.

Our projections update throughout the day, every day of the season, so you’re working from recent player information and expected minutes.

Which college basketball players do we project?

Expected minutes are the gate. Our model only projects players who have them, and outside March Madness most games don't have expected minutes for every player. On a regular-season night, a player without a minutes projection won't appear in the table, however big his role. The table is fullest in March Madness, once the field is set on Selection Sunday.

Expected minutes are also how late news reaches the table. When an injury or a lineup change moves a player's expected minutes, his projection moves with them, so check back near tip-off.

For a number on every Division I game, our College Basketball Predictions price each matchup from team data, so they cover the whole slate.

Using college basketball player projections against the line

A projection becomes a betting read when you hold it against a line. Say our model projects a player for 16.2 points and a sportsbook lists him at 14.5, with the over at -110. That 1.7-point gap is a reason to look closer at the over. It isn't the chance the over hits.

The price is the other half. An over at -110 needs to hit 52.4% of the time to break even, and a projection on its own doesn't tell you whether it will. Gaps don't scale evenly across stats, either: a full steal above a 1.5 steals line is a big gap, and a full point above a 20.5 points line is a small one.

Our College Basketball Player Props take the next step, with our probability for each prop and the edge against the best available odds.

More college basketball betting tools

Our college basketball player projections are forecasts for the raw stat lines.

For everything else, we have a full lineup of men's college basketball tools:

• CBB Player Props: Our college basketball player props, each with our probability, edge, and the best available odds.
• CBB Predictions: Free college basketball predictions for every Division I game, with a projected score.
• CBB Best Bets: Our college basketball Best Bets on the moneyline, spread, and total.
• CBB Trends: Track college basketball trends for player hit streaks when prop betting.
• CBB Parlays: Automatic college basketball parlays built from our model's picks.
• CBB Odds: Compare college basketball odds and lines across major sportsbooks.
• CBB Futures: Outright NCAA championship futures with probabilities and odds.
• CBB News: Daily college basketball news, including previews and picks.

New to betting college hoops? Get started with our college basketball betting guide.

Unlock every college basketball player projection with Dimers Pro

Only three CBB player projections are free each day.

Become a Dimers Pro member to see every player our model projects across the slate:

• Every player projection: The full table, every player with expected minutes, beyond the free three.
• Filters: Narrow the table by player, team, and matchup instead of scrolling a full Saturday slate.
• CSV download: Take the full table into your own spreadsheet, model, or lineup optimizer.

You also get the full Dimers experience:

• Research on any device: Desktop, plus the iOS and Android app.
• Dimebot AI assistant: Ask about any game or market and get answers built on our data.
• Private Discord: Talk bets with other members and Dimers experts.
• 15,000+ events a year: Picks, props, and parlays across more major sports.

Join Dimers Pro now. Cancel or pause anytime.

Responsible gambling

Players finish above and below their projections every night, and a bet or a lineup built on one can lose. There’s no shortage of games, and there's always another entry to make. That makes it easy to spend more than you planned. Set a weekly bankroll that covers both, rather than a nightly one, so one crowded slate can't take the whole budget. Only bet what you can afford to lose, and treat a loss as money spent rather than something to win back at the next tip.

If gambling is causing harm for you or someone close to you, our responsible gambling resources include support services and self-exclusion options.