Pennsylvania vs. Illinois prediction, odds, pick for Nov. 5, 2026

Illinois is favored to beat Pennsylvania at State Farm Center on Thursday (8:30 PM ET), according to Dimers' men's college basketball model.

Our Pennsylvania vs. Illinois prediction gives Illinois a 98.6% chance of winning, while the latest odds suggest there's betting value on the under 173.5 points.

Pennsylvania vs. Illinois key predictions

• Predicted score: Illinois 95-66 Pennsylvania
• Illinois win probability: 98.6%
• Pennsylvania win probability: 1.4%
• Pennsylvania +30.5 spread: 52.0% cover probability
• Under 173.5 points: 55.6% probability

Our men's college basketball predictions project each team's final score using offensive and defensive efficiency, recent performance, long-term trends, and matchup-specific factors.

We calculate win, spread, and total probabilities based on these projections and historical CBB scoring patterns, then compare them with the latest odds to find betting value.

Pennsylvania vs. Illinois odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets we track.

• Pennsylvania moneyline: +8000 (FanDuel)
• Illinois moneyline: -10000 (BetMGM)
• Pennsylvania +30.5: -102 (FanDuel)
• Illinois -30.5: -110 (Caesars Sportsbook)
• Over 173.5 points: -108 (BetRivers)
• Under 173.5 points: -105 (BetMGM)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Pennsylvania vs. Illinois pick: Under 173.5 (-105)

Our model makes Illinois the likelier winner, but our best value bet is the under 173.5 total points at -105 on BetMGM.

Those odds give the under an implied probability of 51.2%, while our model puts it at 55.6%.

That's a 4.4% edge, the largest across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets for this game.

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• Best bets across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets
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Pennsylvania vs. Illinois game details

• Matchup: Pennsylvania vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
• Date: Thursday, November 5, 2026
• Time: 8:30 PM ET
• Venue: State Farm Center

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from our men's college basketball models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or lineup changes. Learn how our predictions work.

Dimers encourages responsible gambling.