Mercyhurst vs. Notre Dame prediction, odds, pick for Nov. 5, 2026

Notre Dame is favored to beat Mercyhurst at Purcell Pavilion on Thursday (7:00 PM ET), according to Dimers' men's college basketball model.

Our Mercyhurst vs. Notre Dame prediction gives Notre Dame a 95.9% chance of winning, but the latest odds suggest there's betting value on Mercyhurst to cover at +19.5.

Mercyhurst vs. Notre Dame key predictions

• Predicted score: Notre Dame 81-61 Mercyhurst
• Notre Dame win probability: 95.9%
• Mercyhurst win probability: 4.1%
• Mercyhurst +19.5 spread: 50.0% cover probability
• Over 142.5 points: 52.1% probability

Our men's college basketball predictions project each team's final score using offensive and defensive efficiency, recent performance, long-term trends, and matchup-specific factors.

We calculate win, spread, and total probabilities based on these projections and historical CBB scoring patterns, then compare them with the latest odds to find betting value.

Mercyhurst vs. Notre Dame odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets we track.

• Mercyhurst moneyline: +1600 (DraftKings)
• Notre Dame moneyline: -4000 (DraftKings)
• Mercyhurst +19.5: +105 (BetRivers)
• Notre Dame -19.5: -105 (DraftKings)
• Over 142.5 points: -108 (BetRivers)
• Under 142.5 points: -115 (BetRivers)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Mercyhurst vs. Notre Dame pick: Mercyhurst +19.5 (+105)

Our model makes Notre Dame the likelier winner, but our best value bet is Mercyhurst to cover the +19.5 spread at +105 on BetRivers.

Those odds give Mercyhurst an implied cover probability of 48.8%, while our model puts it at 50.0%.

That's a 1.3% edge (accounting for rounding), the largest across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets for this game.

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Mercyhurst vs. Notre Dame game details

• Matchup: Mercyhurst Lakers vs. Notre Dame
• Date: Thursday, November 5, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET
• Venue: Purcell Pavilion

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from our men's college basketball models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or lineup changes. Learn how our predictions work.

Dimers encourages responsible gambling.