Quick Facts About Predicting on Economy
- A prediction market lets traders trade “Yes” and “No” contracts based on the likelihood of real-world events occurring.
- Event contracts in economic prediction markets are driven by specific, scheduled releases or announcements from official sources.
- Some of the areas of the economy covered by event contracts include Federal Reserve Policy, inflation, and deficits, among others.
- Kalshi, Crypto.com, Robinhood, and Polymarkets are our
top prediction market sites.
How Economic Prediction Markets Work
A prediction market is an exchange where you trade “Yes” and “No” contracts based on the likelihood of a specific real-world event occurring. The contracts are binary, and either settle at $1 if the event occurs (“Yes”) or $0 if it does not (“No”). Event contract prices reflect what other traders in the market think the probability of events occurring is. For instance, if a contract is trading at $0.95, the market believes there’s roughly a 95% chance it will occur.
Similar to our experience
predicting on the stock market, leading prediction market sites we’ve reviewed cover many niches where you can trade contracts. These include economy, politics, sports, entertainment, economics, and financials, among others. Let’s look at how economic prediction markets work.
Understanding Economic Prediction Markets
There are two main aspects of trading economic event contracts. There’s speculator trading, where you trade based on available data, or hedge trading, where you try to protect your finances.
Unlike with sports and politics prediction markets, where event contracts are linked to stats or polls, event contracts in economic prediction markets are driven by specific, scheduled releases or announcements from official sources. These sources include (but aren’t limited to)the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for CPI inflation, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) for GDP, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) for interest rate decisions. Some of the areas of the economy that are covered by event contracts include:
- Federal Reserve Policy
- Inflation
- Price data markets
- Growth Markets
- Rates
- Debt
- Deficits
One trend we’ve noticed in economic prediction markets is that contract prices are quite volatile as scheduled releases or announcements approach. That’s because new information drives shifts in market sentiment, with liquidity concentrating around the consensus view. Consequently, prices may change as traders adjust their positions to align with the new information
Dos and Don’ts to Note
Here’s a quick look at some tips to keep in mind when you predict on the economy:
| Dos |
Don’ts |
| Only use reputable prediction market sites |
Ignore the specific rules for each event |
| Plan for the price volatility just before release dates |
Use unofficial data for predictions |
| Keep your trades small |
|
Our Top Sites for Economy Predictions
Now that you understand how to trade event contracts on economic outcomes, let’s look at four sites that offer a great prediction experience:
Kalshi – Really Easy to Use
Kalshi: Pros & Cons
- Regulated by the CFTC
- Wide range of political & macro event markets
- Clean, user-friendly trading interface
- Lower liquidity on some niche markets
- Not designed for high-frequency traders
The first thing that struck us about this economy prediction site was how intuitive and easy to use its website interface was. Once you click the “Economy” tab on the home screen, you’ll be directed to a page where all the available economy prediction markets are displayed. Kalshi also has a native app and is fully mobile-optimized.
As a new trader, you’ll be welcomed with a $10 welcome bonus that’s triggered after you’ve made trades worth at least $100. It also features several other promotions for existing traders.
Some of the available event contracts we found during this review include:
- State of the economy at the end of 2025?
- Fed decision in January?
We like how Kalshi covers many macro indicators and offers granular ranges, and that it has great liquidity around official release times. Note that Kalshi doesn’t have a fixed trading fee, as the contract price and market liquidity determine its fees. It’s also worth mentioning that Kalshi offers other prediction markets so you can explore
trading on Ethereum prices
and more.
Crypto.com claims to be the world’s premier crypto exchange and has now ventured into the prediction market space through its partnership with Underdog, a Fantasy Sports company.
At Crypto.com, you can trade on economic events using fiat currencies and multiple cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), Cronos (CRO), Litecoin (LITE), XRP (XRP), among others.
We didn’t find any sign-up bonus for its prediction market product, but it does offer limited-time promotions for new and existing traders. Its website interface is relatively intuitive, and its dedicated app offers better usability. Plus, Crypto.com charges a $0.01 commission (or its equivalent) per trade.
Although Crypto.com doesn’t have as many economic event contracts as the other sites on this list, it's also a great place for
predicting on Bitcoin prices.
Robinhood – Its Sign-Up Reward Is Different from Most
Robinhood’s welcome offer is quite different from what we’ve seen at most prediction sites. With this offer, new traders get bonus stock valued between $5 and $200, with no fixed value. However, you can’t sell your bonus stock to buy event contracts, but you can reinvest it in fractional shares of any other stock that you want to own.
We found a decent number of economic prediction markets on Robinhood, including rent, macro indicators, and
predicting on the Federal Reserve. You can even combine and trade contracts for multiple predictions. Although the site sets the combos, it’s worth trying out. Here are some of the combos we found during our review:
- Unemployment rate (U3): 4.5%, Non-farm payroll growth: 50-75k
- Unemployment rate (U3): >4.6%, Non-farm payroll growth: <50k
- Unemployment rate (U3): 4.4%, Non-farm payroll growth: 100-125k
Note that Robinhood only charges a $0.01 commission on trades, which you’ll pay when buying or selling event contracts.
Polymarket – Lots of Event Contracts Available
Polymarket is a crypto-based prediction market where you can trade on up to 80+ economy prediction markets using contracts that are priced between 0.00 and 1.00 USDC. Some of our favorites include:
- Largest Company end of 2025?
- Bank of Japan Decision in December?
- How will the 10-year Treasury yield go in 2025?
- Will Trump fire Powell in 2025?
- How high will inflation get in 2025?
Polymarket’s website and app are easy to use, and they're fully mobile-optimized. We like how it displays fast-moving economic markets and their prices across devices, so traders are always up to speed on which contracts to trade.
Although it doesn’t offer a welcome bonus, the site does offer a couple of rewards for existing traders. Polymarket also doesn’t charge fees for trading contracts or for depositing or withdrawing USDC.
How We Picked Our Economy Prediction Sites
There are now many prediction market sites where you can trade contracts on economic events. However, not all of them are good for you. Here are some of the markers we looked for when picking our recommended prediction sites:
Some prediction sites aren't available to US traders, so we ensured that all the sites we’ve recommended are available to most US jurisdictions. Note that federal and state legislation about prediction market sites constantly changes. The good news is, you can keep an eye on this page for the latest updates on economy prediction sites available in your region.
We also ensured that all the sites we’ve recommended in this guide cover a variety of economy prediction events that you could trade on. For instance, Polymarket offers up to 80+ economy events that you could trade on. Although the other sites on our list don’t cover as much, they still feature multiple events.
💧 Liquidity and market depth
A key aspect of event contract trading is the availability of counterparties for the contracts and the accuracy of their pricing. By counterparty, we mean traders willing to trade on the opposing side of each event contract, regardless of the outcome.
All our recommended sites have strong liquidity and deep markets. Kalshi and Polymarket, in particular, provide lots of liquidity data as part of their markets, so you’ll also always know their liquidity numbers.
💵 What are the fees like?
We only picked sites with trader-friendly fees. For instance, Polymarket doesn’t charge fees for trading contracts or for depositing or withdrawing USDC during your economy predicting sessions.
Kalshi doesn’t have a fixed trading fee, as the contract price and market liquidity determine its fees. Robinhood and Crypto.com, on the other hand, charge only $0.01 per trade.
🎁 Are there bonuses and promos available?
Bonuses and promotions can make predictions more rewarding, so we factored their availability into our selection process. At Kalshi, new traders get a $10 welcome bonus valid for 30 days, activated with trades of at least $100. You’ll also have access to several other ongoing rewards.
With Polymarket, you don’t get a welcome bonus, but you can claim Liquidity Rewards and Holding Rewards for existing traders. Crypto.com also doesn’t offer a welcome bonus, but you’ll find occasional, limited-time promotions. Robinhood, on the other hand, awards its new traders bonus stock worth between $5 and $200.
📱 Usability across devices
A site’s services are only as good as how easy it is to use them. That’s why we tested the usability of multiple sites before picking our recommended sites. All four sites we recommended have very intuitive website interfaces, making trading on them really easy.
They also feature highly responsive native apps for Android and iOS devices that offer the same functionality as the desktop versions. Ultimately, the trading processes on all four sites are seamless, which is great for new traders predicting on economy-based event contracts.
Pros and Cons of Predicting on Economy
Here are the upsides and downsides of making economic predictions at leading sites:
Pros and Cons
- Easy prediction processes
- Fluid mobile predictions
- Multiple promotions
- Trader-friendly fees
- Price volatility before releases
Conclusion – Enjoy Predicting on Economy at Our Recommended Sites
If you’re new to predicting on economy-related events and need leading sites that offer a great experience, Kalshi, Crypto.com, Robinhood, and Polymarket are our top picks.
All four prediction sites are easy to use across devices, have impressive liquidity and market depth, and charge zero to minimal fees. Polymarket covers the most economy markets with 80+ options available, although it’s still in its beta phase in the US. Kalshi offers the best usability across devices, and you’ll have access to 400+ cryptocurrencies to trade at Crypto.com. Robinhood offers new traders a unique welcome bonus.
Regardless of the site you opt to start at, you’ll have a fun experience making predictions on economic outcomes. The best part is, all you need to get started on these sites is to click on our on-page banners.
1.
Predicting on Economy FAQs
💡 How Do Economic Event Contracts Work?
Event contracts in economic prediction markets are driven by specific, scheduled releases or announcements from official sources.
📈 What Economic Events Can I Trade Contracts On?
You can forecast on Federal Reserve Policy, inflation, price data markets, and deficits, to mention a few.
🔍 What Are Economy Prediction Odds?
There are no odds with prediction markets. Rather, you have contract prices for economic prediction contracts determined by market forces.
⏰ Why Do Prices Move Before the Release Time?
New information drives shifts in market sentiment, with liquidity concentrating around the consensus view. Consequently, prices may change as traders adjust their positions to align with the new information.
For guidance on responsible trading and risk awareness, the following free official resources are available:
To make sure you get accurate and helpful information, this guide has been edited by
Jason Bevilacqua
as part of our fact-checking process.
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