This Week’s Expert Tip for Economy Traders (Updated 07/13/2026)
Consider the "Above $4.60" contract on Kalshi's "How high will US gas prices get this year?" market, because it jumped 10 cents to 43% this week alone, the biggest single move across all three price thresholds and a sign the underlying price has pushed right up against that line.
The chart shows gas prices flattening out near $4.60 since June after sliding down from a May peak above $5.20, so this particular contract is effectively a coin flip on whether that plateau holds or breaks higher. The $4.80 and $5.00 thresholds moved only 3 cents each, reflecting far less uncertainty. With just over $1.1 million traded, size trades carefully given the thinner volume.
Quick Facts About Predicting on Economy
- Financial Derivative Structure:
Economic prediction markets use Event Contracts to trade on the probability of macro-indicators, functioning as a real-time sentiment gauge for the U.S. economy.
- Data-Driven Settlement:
Economic contracts are tied to deterministic, scheduled releases from official agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Federal Reserve.
- High-Impact Macro Categories:
Active trading sectors include Consumer Price Index (CPI) fluctuations, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decisions, and quarterly GDP growth forecasts.
- Regulated U.S. Exchanges:
The primary CFTC-regulated prediction market sites for legal economic trading include Kalshi and Crypto.com, while Polymarket provides deep global liquidity for international events.
- Entry and Efficiency:
Most regulated platforms allow participation for residents 18 and older.
How Economic Prediction Markets Work
A prediction market is an exchange where you trade “Yes” and “No” contracts based on the likelihood of a specific real-world event occurring. The contracts are binary, and either settle at $1 if the event occurs (“Yes”) or $0 if it does not (“No”). Event contract prices reflect what other traders in the market think the probability of events occurring is. For instance, if a contract is trading at $0.95, the market believes there’s roughly a 95% chance it will occur.
Similar to our experience predicting on the stock market, leading prediction market sites we’ve reviewed cover many niches where you can trade contracts. These include economy, politics, sports, entertainment, economics, and financials, among others. Let’s look at how economic prediction markets work.
Understanding Economic Prediction Markets
There are two main aspects of trading economic event contracts. There’s speculator trading, where you trade based on available data, or hedge trading, where you try to protect your finances.
Unlike with sports and politics prediction markets, where event contracts are linked to stats or polls, event contracts in economic prediction markets are driven by specific, scheduled releases or announcements from official sources. These sources include (but aren’t limited to)the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for CPI inflation, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) for GDP, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) for interest rate decisions. Some of the areas of the economy that are covered by event contracts include:
- Federal Reserve Policy
- Inflation
- Price data markets
- Growth Markets
- Rates
- Debt
- Deficits
One trend we’ve noticed in economic prediction markets is that contract prices are quite volatile as scheduled releases or announcements approach. That’s because new information drives shifts in market sentiment, with liquidity concentrating around the consensus view. Consequently, prices may change as traders adjust their positions to align with the new information
Dos and Don’ts to Note
Here’s a quick look at some tips to keep in mind when you predict on the economy:
| Dos |
Don’ts |
| Only use reputable prediction market sites |
Ignore the specific rules for each event |
| Plan for the price volatility just before release dates |
Use unofficial data for predictions |
| Keep your trades small |
|
Our Top Sites for Economy Predictions
Inflation prints, Fed decisions, and jobs data drive some of the highest-volume contracts on
top prediction market sites, but not every platform handles them the same way. Here's how Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, MooMoo, and DraftKings Predict stack up on granularity, regulation, and how directly each ties economic contracts into a broader trading experience.
Kalshi
Kalshi: Pros & Cons
- Fully CFTC-regulated exchange
- Diverse markets including sports, politics, and economics
- Supports PayPal, Venmo, and Crypto deposits
- Highly rated mobile app for iOS and Android
- Trading fees apply to both makers and takers
- Bank withdrawals can take several business days
Kalshi's economic markets reward traders who like precision. Inflation contracts alone break into dozens of individual strike prices, letting someone trade the exact CPI print they expect rather than a broad up-or-down call, and the Fed category prices specific outcomes like a rate hold versus a 25 basis point move down to single-digit percentage differences.
Oil and energy markets track price thresholds in real time alongside the same data-driven categories used for GDP and jobs. Because these are exchange-listed contracts rather than informal forecasts, each one settles against a defined, published source.
For traders who want to express a granular view on a specific economic release, Kalshi's contract design is difficult to match.
Polymarket
Pros and Cons of Polymarket
- Licensed by CFTC
- Covers various real-life events
- Dedicated mobile app
Polymarket's economic markets go beyond simple rate-hold-or-cut questions. Its Economic Policy page alone tracks tens of millions of dollars in volume across contracts like whether a US recession occurs by year-end or how many Fed rate cuts land in 2026, the latter structured as a multi-outcome market rather than a binary one.
A dedicated macro dashboard pulls these questions together with GDP growth and rate-hike odds in a single view, updating continuously as new data and Fed commentary shift sentiment.
Because positions are backed by real capital, price moves tend to track economic surprises closely and quickly. For traders who want breadth across the full macro picture, that dashboard view is a real asset.
Crypto.com
Crypto.com: Pros & Cons
- Competition-based promotions
- iOS & Android apps
- Minimalist website design
- Beginner-friendly
Crypto.com's economic contracts cover the releases that move broader markets: recession odds, Fed rate decisions, inflation prints, and interest rate announcements, all trading through Crypto.com Derivatives North America under CFTC oversight.
Prices adjust quickly around scheduled data, and because the product is fully collateralized, every position's maximum gain or loss is known upfront before a trade is placed. Traders can use limit orders to target a specific price rather than accepting whatever the market currently offers, which matters most in the seconds after a surprising CPI or jobs report.
For anyone already trading crypto or other assets on the platform, adding an economic contract during a Fed week takes only a few taps.
MooMoo
MooMoo Prediction Markets: Pros and Cons
- Already received regulatory approval from US regulators
- Economics, sports, and politics prediction markets
- Multiple customer support options are likely
MooMoo brings its brokerage-grade tools to a fairly specific set of economic categories: the Fed, GDP, growth, jobs and the economy, inflation, oil and energy, global central banks, and housing.
That's a deliberately built list rather than a catch-all category, reflecting the kind of releases a self-directed investor is already tracking for their broader portfolio. Contracts are powered by a Kalshi partnership and settle under CFTC oversight, with pricing between one and ninety-nine cents updating as data comes in.
Because MooMoo already surfaces real-time news and analytics for its trading base, an economic contract on a jobs report or Fed decision shows up alongside the same information a trader would use to price it.
DraftKings Predict
DrafktKings Predict: Pros and Cons
- CFTC-regulated
- Available in 48 states
- Excellent sports coverage
The official Economics page at DraftKings Predictions lets traders predict rates, inflation, jobs, and GDP trends, with specific contracts built around non-farm payrolls, unemployment figures, the federal funds rate, and CPI.
Each market operates under CFTC oversight, and because the interface mirrors the sportsbook's moneyline display, a trader who already reads game odds can interpret a Fed rate contract without learning a new pricing convention.
For traders who want economic markets presented the way sports lines are, DraftKings Predictions is the most direct translation.
How We Picked Our Economy Prediction Sites
There are now many prediction market sites where you can trade contracts on economic events. However, not all of them are good for you. Here are some of the markers we looked for when picking our recommended prediction sites:
Some prediction sites aren't available to US traders, so we ensured that all the sites we’ve recommended are available to most US jurisdictions. Note that federal and state legislation about prediction market sites constantly changes. The good news is, you can keep an eye on this page for the latest updates on economy prediction sites available in your region.
We also ensured that all the sites we’ve recommended in this guide cover a variety of economy prediction events that you could trade on. For instance, Polymarket offers up to 80+ economy events that you could trade on. Although the other sites on our list don’t cover as much, they still feature multiple events.
💧 Liquidity and market depth
A key aspect of event contract trading is the availability of counterparties for the contracts and the accuracy of their pricing. By counterparty, we mean traders willing to trade on the opposing side of each event contract, regardless of the outcome.
All our recommended sites have strong liquidity and deep markets. Kalshi and Polymarket, in particular, provide lots of liquidity data as part of their markets, so you’ll also always know their liquidity numbers.
💵 What are the fees like?
We only picked sites with trader-friendly fees. Polymarket charges no fee for trading, depositing, or withdrawing USDC. Kalshi's fees scale with contract price and volume, peaking around 50¢ contracts (50% probability) and tapering off near the extremes, typically a cent or two per contract. Crypto.com and MooMoo, both trading through the same Kalshi/CDNA-linked infrastructure, apply a similar small per-contract fee, and DraftKings Predict settles under the same CFTC framework, with its own fee terms published on-site
🎁 Are there bonuses and promos available?
Bonuses and promotions can make predictions more rewarding, so we factored their availability into our selection process. Promotions vary and change often across all five sites, so it's worth checking each platform directly before trading.
Polymarket offers Liquidity and Holding Rewards to active traders rather than a signup bonus. Kalshi and Crypto.com run occasional limited-time promotions. MooMoo and DraftKings Predict tie their event-contract offerings into their platforms' broader promotional structures.
📱 Usability across devices
A site's services are only as good as how easy it is to use them. That's why we tested the usability of multiple sites before picking our recommended sites. All five sites we recommended have very intuitive website interfaces, making trading on them really easy.
They also feature highly responsive native apps for Android and iOS devices that offer the same functionality as the desktop versions. MooMoo and DraftKings Predict fold prediction markets directly into their existing brokerage and sportsbook apps, so there's no separate download needed if you already use either platform. Ultimately, the trading processes on all five sites are seamless, which is great for new traders predicting on economy-based event contracts.
Pros and Cons of Predicting on Economy
Here are the upsides and downsides of making economic predictions at leading sites:
Pros and Cons
- Easy prediction processes
- Fluid mobile predictions
- Multiple promotions
- Trader-friendly fees
- Price volatility before releases
Conclusion – Enjoy Predicting on Economy at Our Recommended Sites
If you're new to predicting on economy-related events and need leading sites that offer a great experience, Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, MooMoo, and DraftKings Predict are our top picks. All five prediction sites are easy to use across devices, have impressive liquidity and market depth, and charge zero to minimal fees.
Polymarket covers the most economy markets with 80+ options available. Kalshi offers the best usability across devices, and you'll have access to 400+ cryptocurrencies to trade at Crypto.com. MooMoo and DraftKings Predict round out the list by folding economic contracts directly into the brokerage and sportsbook apps traders may already use.
Regardless of the site you opt to start at, you’ll have a fun experience making predictions on economic outcomes. The best part is, all you need to get started on these sites is to click on our on-page banners.
Predicting on Economy FAQs
💡 How Do Economic Event Contracts Work?
Event contracts in economic prediction markets are driven by specific, scheduled releases or announcements from official sources.
📈 What Economic Events Can I Trade Contracts On?
You can forecast on Federal Reserve Policy, inflation, price data markets, and deficits, to mention a few.
🔍 What Are Economy Prediction Odds?
There are no odds with prediction markets. Rather, you have contract prices for economic prediction contracts determined by market forces.
⏰ Why Do Prices Move Before the Release Time?
New information drives shifts in market sentiment, with liquidity concentrating around the consensus view. Consequently, prices may change as traders adjust their positions to align with the new information.
For guidance on responsible trading and risk awareness, the following free official resources are available:
To make sure you get accurate and helpful information, this guide has been edited by
Jason Bevilacqua
as part of our fact-checking process.
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