Quick Facts About Betting on Tech
- Sportsbooks do not offer markets on tech
- On prediction sites, you can trade tech event contracts
- Kalshi, Robinhood, and Polymarket are the best tech prediction markets
What Are Tech Event Contracts?
You can view tech event contracts as financial derivatives that you can buy or sell. On prediction market sites, these event contracts represent real-world outcomes in the technology industry. They're offered in a Yes/No format, and here’s an example we saw on one of our top platforms for
Best AI of the Year:
- Gemini: Yes @ $0.84, No @ $0.18
- ChatGPT: Yes @ $0.12, No @ $0.90
- Grok: Yes @ $0.08, No @ $0.95
If you believe Gemini will emerge as the best, you can purchase its Yes event contracts for $0.84 each. Otherwise, you buy the No option, and the same applies to other AIs on the list.
Tech Event Contract Pricing
Event contract prices on tech prediction markets stay between $0.01 and $0.99, and they’re based on supply and demand. From our initial example, Yes for Gemini costs more at $0.84 because many traders are purchasing it. This also implies 84% of the market believes the AI will win the best award of the year.
Suppose trends change and ChatGPT gets more traction for being the best. In that case, traders will start selling their Gemini contracts to buy ChatGPT’s. Consequently, the price of Yes for Gemini will drop, while that for ChatGPT goes up.
If you decide to buy a particular amount of tech event contracts, some other trader must be available to sell. The prediction market site will only match the two orders and collect a small commission.
Payouts on Tech Prediction Market Sites
Another fact to know before trading tech event contracts is how payouts work. It’s simple, though. For each event contract with a correct prediction, the payout is $1.
Let’s say you purchase 200 Yes event contracts for Gemini to be the best AI. At $0.84 each, your total investment will be $168. If the AI wins, the prediction market site will pay $200, so you make a $32 profit.
You can choose to sell your contracts early if the price appreciates before the event settles. For instance, if the Yes contract price for Gemini increases to $0.90, selling will get you $180, meaning an early $12 profit.
Likewise, if the Yes contract for Gemini is losing value, you can sell to reduce the deficit. If the event settles and the AI doesn’t win, your contracts will be worth $0.00.
Now, we’re sure you’re familiar with how tech prediction market sites work. We tested several platforms in the US to handpick the best, and these three stood out:
Kalshi – Best for AI
Kalshi: Pros & Cons
- Regulated by the CFTC
- Wide range of political & macro event markets
- Clean, user-friendly trading interface
- Lower liquidity on some niche markets
- Not designed for high-frequency traders
If you’re interested in making predictions on AI, you can register with Kalshi and trade AI-based event contracts. We recommend the platform because it lists a broad range of prediction options.
During our review, we saw event contracts for
predicting the best AI, companies that will have AI models, and top AI models by month. Also, the options cover legal areas like whether AI regulation will become federal law.
One interesting subcategory we saw on Kalshi is AI Transfers. The featured options let you predict which employees will move from one AI company to another. Note that when you buy or sell tech event contracts on Kalshi, the platform takes commissions between $0.01 and $0.03.
Robinhood – Best for Space Events
Next on our list is Robinhood, one of the trending prediction market apps in the US. We saw a space subcategory in the Technology section, which let you speculate on quite interesting outcomes. To illustrate, you can predict whether the US will say aliens exist or how many launches SpaceX will have in a year.
Robinhood can serve as a great option for
trading on future tech. For instance, we saw options to predict if certain rocket types will launch before a particular year and reach orbit. The site also has science-tech event contracts for speculating on future medicine, like cancer drugs and bird flu vaccines.
You can buy and sell event contracts on Robinhood while paying low $0.01 commissions. If an exchange fee applies, the cost is $0.02, which is still not much.
Polymarket – Best for Initial Public Offerings (IPOs)
We saw many searches for
predictions on IPOs
during our review. If you’re also interested in the same, consider Polymarket for trading related tech event contracts. On the site or app, you’ll see a dedicated IPOs section under the Tech category.
From our checks, the prediction options for IPOs on Polymarket are pretty simple. Most involve speculating on which companies will release IPOs within a particular timeframe or the closing market cap. The site covers top tech companies like Wealthfront, Celonis, OpenAI, SpaceX, Anthropic, and Databricks.
Based on our calculations, Polymarket commissions for trading tech event contracts are $0.01 on average for outcomes with high probabilities. Those with lower chances of turning out true have much lower commissions of around $0.005.
Are Tech Prediction Markets Legal in the US?
Yes, the best tech prediction market sites we recommend are all legal in the US. They’re regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which makes them legal at the federal level. By extension, the platforms can offer technology-related event contracts in many states.
From our reviews, you can confirm that the prediction market sites don’t have tech betting odds. Therefore, they’re not sportsbooks that require local licensing to operate in various states. However, some limitations may still apply.
For instance, we noted that Maryland residents can’t trade event contracts on Robinhood. Therefore, always check your local laws to ensure you can trade in
prediction markets
before signing up.
Expert Tips for Trading Tech Event Contracts
Buying and selling event contracts still involve real money, so you have to trade responsibly. Here are our tips to help you achieve that:
| Tip | Details |
| Research the tech companies | Ensure you understand the business, finances, and recent news of the companies behind each tech event. The more you know about the products and market position, the better your predictions will be. |
| Follow industry trends | The goal is to stay updated on the tech sector as a whole. Keep an eye on market trends, regulatory changes, and competitor moves, as these can all influence event outcomes. |
| Monitor contract prices | The market can shift at any time, so closely watch how event contract prices move. If there’s a quick spike or drop, look for opportunities to buy low or sell high. |
| Spread your investment | We don’t advise putting all your funds into a single tech event contract. It’s much better to diversify across multiple prediction options to keep things balanced and reduce risk. |
| Set profit and loss limits | Before trading, decide the point at which you will take profits or cut losses. That way, you can stay disciplined and avoid making emotional decisions. |
Conclusion – Trade Tech Event Contracts with Prediction Market Sites
You’ll get the best tech trading experience with our top three prediction market sites. Kalshi is ideal for AI-related tech events, while Robinhood is our top pick for space-based predictions. With Polymarket, you have several options for predicting IPOs.
1.
Trading on Tech FAQs
🔍 How Do Prediction Tech Markets Work?
Prediction market platforms allow you to trade tech event contracts in a Yes/No format based on the featured outcomes. The contracts cost $0.01 to $0.99, and they pay out $1 if correct and $0.00 if not.
📈 What Tech Prediction Markets Are Available?
Tech prediction sites allow you to purchase contracts on a wide variety of markets including AI milestones, IPOs, product launches, regulatory or legal decisions, emerging innovations, and more.
❓ How Are Tech Prediction Markets Different from Stock Trading?
Unlike stocks, you’re not buying equity or ownership in a company. Instead, you’re trading contracts tied to specific, clearly defined outcomes, such as whether a company goes public by a certain date or whether a technology milestone is reached.
For guidance on responsible trading and risk awareness, the following free official resources are available:
To make sure you get accurate and helpful information, this guide has been edited by
Mac Douglass
as part of our fact-checking process.
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