NFL Best Bets: Model-Backed Picks for Maximum Value

NFL betting is all about timing, precision, and value—and that’s exactly what you get with Dimers’ NFL Best Bets. Every week, our advanced simulation model cuts through the noise to highlight the strongest betting edges on the board. Whether you’re betting spreads, totals, or moneylines, these are the plays that combine high win probability with favorable sportsbook pricing.

Dimers’ NFL Best Bets are updated daily throughout the season, with new selections added as odds shift, injuries break, and betting markets evolve. These aren’t just predictions—they’re actionable bets backed by real data.

Whether you're backing a superstar quarterback like Patrick Mahomes or fading a struggling defense facing a power back like Saquon Barkley, Dimers helps you move beyond hype and focus on probability, price, and real edge.

What Are NFL Best Bets?

Not every bet is created equal. While basic picks suggest who might win, best bets focus on where the value is—meaning wagers that are statistically more likely to return a profit over time. Here’s how we build them:

• High Probability, Low Cost – We measure the true likelihood of an outcome and compare it to sportsbook odds to uncover bets where the math is in your favor.

• Model-Validated – Every best bet is powered by our proprietary NFL simulation model, which analyzes team performance, matchup history, tempo, coaching trends, weather, and more.

• Market-Aware – We monitor how lines move across sportsbooks to ensure our best bets reflect the current value, not yesterday’s number.

Why Dimers Best Bets Stand Out

Precision Modeling

Our NFL model simulates each game thousands of times, factoring in quarterback play, offensive line strength, defensive pressure rates, and more. These simulations help us forecast win probabilities and identify edges others miss.

Betting Value, Not Just Win Picks

It’s not about picking every favorite. We focus on positive expected value (+EV) bets—where the implied probability in the odds is lower than our internal model suggests it should be.

Updated Daily

NFL markets move fast. We refresh our best bets regularly as injury news, weather changes, and betting action affect the lines—so you’re always betting with the most accurate data.

Types of NFL Best Bets

Dimers identifies value across a variety of NFL bet types, each offering a different way to capitalize on our predictive edge. Here are the main formats you’ll find across our Best Bets feed:

NFL Moneyline Best Bet

This is the simplest format—picking the outright winner. Our model compares each team's win probability to current sportsbook odds, flagging when a favorite is undervalued or an underdog is stronger than the odds suggest. If our data shows a 62% chance of victory but the line implies just 55%, we tag it as a potential Best Bet.

NFL Spread Best Bet

The spread market is all about beating the number. Dimers pinpoints games where a team is likely to exceed expectations relative to the line—whether that’s a heavy favorite who’s being underpriced or an underdog poised to cover in a tighter-than-expected matchup.

NFL Over/Under Best Bet

In totals betting, it’s about whether both teams will combine to score more or fewer points than the posted line. Dimers focuses on identifying totals where the likelihood of the game going over or under exceeds what the odds imply—especially when weather, tempo, or red-zone efficiency create hidden value.

Dimers Pro: Unlock Sharper Edges

If you want to go beyond our public best bets, Dimers Pro gives you premium tools to find even deeper value:

• +EV Alerts – Get notified when a sportsbook’s line diverges significantly from our model’s projection, creating a profitable edge.

• Expanded Market Access – Beyond spreads and totals, Dimers Pro covers alternate lines, player props, and correlated parlay legs.

• Live Adjustments – Our system incorporates late-breaking injury reports, weather, and line movement in real time.

Expand Your NFL Strategy with Dimers

NFL Best Bets are part of a complete ecosystem of data and tools. Explore more:

• NFL Picks – Game-by-game recommendations for sides, totals, and moneylines.

• NFL Predictions – Win probabilities and projected outcomes for every game on the schedule.

• NFL Prop Bets – Player-focused props powered by projections and matchup data.

• NFL Odds – Live odds comparison across major sportsbooks to find the best price.

• NFL Trends – Track player or team patterns that influence market movement.

• NFL Futures – Bet long-term markets like MVP, Rookie of the Year, and Super Bowl odds.

• NFL Parlays – Combine high-value picks into bigger payouts with same-game or multi-game strategies.
  
  

Betting 101 and Sportsbook Promos

Even the best data benefits from smart fundamentals. Use our Betting 101 guides to sharpen your strategy—covering bankroll management, line movement, odds formats, and more.

Take advantage of current promos while you’re at it:

• Deposit Bonuses – Double your bankroll from day one.

• First-Bet Forgiveness – Try out a best bet without the usual downside.

• Odds Boosts – Grab enhanced pricing on select NFL matchups.
  
  

Pairing these offers with Dimers’ NFL Best Bets gives you more margin—and more confidence—in every wager.

How to Use NFL Best Bets

1. Visit Dimers.com Each Game Week

Check our featured NFL Best Bets ahead of every slate—Thursday, Sunday, and Monday.

2. Upgrade with Dimers Pro

Unlock +EV alerts, alternate lines, and deeper betting angles powered by real-time data.

3. Build a Smart Ticket

Use our other tools—Picks, Predictions, and Props—to create a full portfolio of informed bets.

4. Stay Promo-Aware

Leverage deposit matches, boosts, or risk-free offers to maximize your payout potential.

With Dimers’ NFL Best Bets, you’re not betting hunches—you’re betting informed, model-backed edges. Whether you're targeting elite matchups, tracking players like Mahomes and Barkley, or scanning the Sunday slate for under-the-radar value, we’re here to help you make your next bet your smartest one yet.