MLB Pitcher Projections

Get the edge in fantasy baseball, betting and DFS with our daily MLB pitcher projections. From expected strikeouts to projected earned runs, our in-house model delivers accurate projections for every pitcher on the slate.

Unlock projections for every player and download functionality

Swipe for more data.

Projections for July 5, 2025. Last update: July 5, 2025 at 1:57 PM ET.

Player	Team	Matchup	Earned runs	Outs	Strike outs	Hits	Matchup
Carlos Rodon C. Rodon	NYY	NYY vs. NYM	2.21	17.05	7.11	4.51	NYY vs. NYM
Max Scherzer M. Scherzer	TOR	LAA vs. TOR	2.26	15.51	5.87	4.65	LAA vs. TOR
Framber Valdez F. Valdez	HOU	HOU vs. LAD	2.17	18.61	5.83	5.37	HOU vs. LAD
Logan Webb L. Webb	SF	SF vs. ATH					SF vs. ATH
Nick Lodolo N. Lodolo	CIN	CIN vs. PHI					CIN vs. PHI
Luis Castillo L. Castillo	SEA	PIT vs. SEA					PIT vs. SEA
Taj Bradley T. Bradley	TB	TB vs. MIN					TB vs. MIN
Suarez Suarez	PHI	CIN vs. PHI					CIN vs. PHI
Michael Wacha M. Wacha	KC	KC vs. ARI					KC vs. ARI
Chad Patrick C. Patrick	MIL	MIL vs. MIA					MIL vs. MIA
Casey Mize C. Mize	DET	DET vs. CLE					DET vs. CLE
Luis Severino L. Severino	ATH	SF vs. ATH					SF vs. ATH
Dean Kremer D. Kremer	BAL	BAL vs. ATL					BAL vs. ATL
German Marquez G. Marquez	COL	CWS vs. COL					CWS vs. COL
Frankie Montas F. Montas	NYM	NYY vs. NYM					NYY vs. NYM
Matthew Liberatore M. Liberatore	STL	STL vs. CHC					STL vs. CHC
Mike Burrows M. Burrows	PIT	PIT vs. SEA					PIT vs. SEA
Patrick Corbin P. Corbin	TEX	TEX vs. SD					TEX vs. SD
Logan Allen L. Allen	CLE	DET vs. CLE					DET vs. CLE
Mitchell Parker M. Parker	WSH	BOS vs. WSH					BOS vs. WSH

MLB player projections are based on the named player being in the starting lineup and do not update for final lineups. Always check a player's status before placing bets or setting DFS lineups.

How Our MLB Pitcher Projections Work

As part of our MLB player projections, we currently generate our MLB pitcher projections on this page using advanced modeling techniques, which simulate every matchup across the league. We factor in season-long and predictive pitching data, adjusting for pitching matchups, ballpark factors and the scoring environment for each game.

Whether you're playing MLB fantasy baseball, analyzing prop bets or building a DFS lineup, these projections offer a sharper, more reliable foundation than surface-level stats. For a complete view, pair them with our MLB hitter projections to cover both sides of the diamond.

Data Collection & Analysis

Our engine analyzes thousands of data points, focusing on:

Strikeouts: Projected using historical strikeout rates, matchup context, and game environment.
Earned Runs: Modeled based on historical ERA, matchup difficulty, and ballpark adjustments.
Opponent Matchups: Simulated using the expected opposing lineup, scoring expectations, and team totals.

Whether you're tracking a high-strikeout ace like Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates or evaluating mid-rotation arms, our MLB pitcher projections today give you the clearest outlook for every start.

Matchup and Contextual Factors

We don't just look at season averages. Our projections zoom in on today's game-specific conditions:

Pitching Matchup Adjustments: Reflecting how a pitcher profiles against the opposing lineup.
Ballpark Factors: Accounting for stadium effects on scoring and home runs.
Scoring Environment: Based on game totals and team totals from betting markets.

This layered approach produces sharper, more actionable MLB pitcher projections tailored to each slate.

What's Included in Our MLB Pitcher Projections?

Our projections table covers the essential pitching metrics you need:

Strikeouts: Projected based on matchup tendencies and historical rates.
Earned Runs (ERA): Adjusted for ballpark, opponent strength, and scoring environment.

You can sort and filter the table and export the data to integrate into DFS tools or betting research—alongside our MLB hitter projections for full slate builds.

MLB Pitcher Projection Use Cases

DFS & MLB Fantasy Baseball

Pitching anchors every DFS lineup. Use our pitcher projections to:

Choose between top-end arms and value options
Avoid trap plays based on outdated ERA or surface stats
Maximize upside and minimize risk based on matchup context

Player Prop Betting

Pitching props like strikeouts and earned runs are hugely popular. Our projections help you:

Identify value in over/under props.
Target pitchers likely to go deep—or get knocked out early.
Capitalize on market inefficiencies before they adjust.

Research and Modeling

Download the projections to analyze deeper.
Compare to sportsbook lines and other fantasy sources.
Build custom models or trend analysis using independent pitcher data.

Our Coverage and Update Frequency

We cover every starting pitcher—and key bullpen candidates if needed—across all 30 MLB teams. Updates occur multiple times daily, particularly when:

Pitching probables are confirmed.
Weather forecasts shift scoring expectations.
Lineup changes alter matchup projections.

This process ensures our MLB pitcher projections today are always fresh, accurate, and responsive to the latest developments.

Get Started With MLB Pitcher Projections

Step 1: Visit the Projections Table

View projected stats for today's starters, including strikeouts and earned runs.

Step 2: Filter and Sort by Slate or Matchup

Zero in on pitchers based on team, opponent, or prop market. Pair them with our MLB hitter projections for complete builds.

Step 3: Export and Integrate

Download the data in CSV format for DFS lineup builders, fantasy platforms, or betting models.

What Makes These Projections Unique

100% Proprietary Model

Our MLB pitcher projections are built fully in-house—no scraping, no aggregation, no shortcuts.

Sharp Adjustments

We factor in pitching matchups, scoring environments, and ballpark influences—keeping projections relevant to each day's slate.

Independent and Reliable

Our projections are designed specifically for serious fantasy players, DFS competitors and bettors seeking an edge.