Oct 23, 2026
World Series Game 1 player props today: Friday's best props include Jacob Misiorowski [10/23/2026]
Read Article Rays vs. Brewers prediction: Why Milwaukee is favored to win Game 1 of 2026 World Series
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Dimers' simulation model projects a 60.9% win probability for the Brewers at American Family Field.
The Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays will meet in Game 1 of the World Series at American Family Field on Friday, starting at 8:00 PM ET.
The Brewers will start Jacob Misiorowski (0-0, 3.24 ERA in 2026 postseason), up against Nick Martinez (1-0, 3.00 ERA) for the Rays.
Dimers' advanced MLB model projects the Brewers as the most likely winner in this Rays vs. Brewers prediction.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
For more, dive into Jacob Misiorowski's pitching projections.
Rays vs. Brewers prediction and odds
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Friday's MLB game between the Rays and Brewers, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Brewers a 60.9% chance of beating the Rays. According to our model, the Rays (+1.5) have a 58.2% chance of covering the run line, while the 6.5-run over/under has a 56.6% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Rays +1.5 (-141) / Brewers -1.5 (+138)
- Moneyline: Rays +170, Brewers -170
- Total: Over/Under 6.5 (-104/+104)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet for Game 1
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Brewers -1.5 @ 42¢ via Polymarket
- Moneyline: Rays @ +170 via BetRivers
- Total: Over 6.5 @ 51¢ via Novig
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 6.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Friday's MLB matchup between the Brewers and Rays at American Family Field is scheduled to start at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers
- Date: Friday, October 23, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00 PM PT
- Venue: American Family Field
Conclusion
We predict the Brewers, with a 60.9% win probability, will likely beat the Rays in Friday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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