Quick Facts About Climate Prediction Sites
- Leading Platforms:
Kalshi dominates regulated data trading, while Polymarket hosts broader global "Yes/No" environmental outcomes.
- Settlement Authority:
Contracts resolve using objective atmospheric data from agencies like NOAA and ECMWF, rather than news reports or subjective calls.
- Parametric Hedging:
These markets function as "Financial Insurance", allowing businesses to hedge against specific risks like drought, heatwaves, or hurricane landfalls.
- Scientific Consensus:
Prices act as a real-time consensus; a $0.90 price on a "Hottest Year" contract often precedes official scientific confirmation by months.
- Volume Leaders:
As of May 2026, top markets include Monthly Temperature Records and Tropical Storm Counts, with key contracts often reaching $10M–$15M in liquidity.
Can You Trade on Climate on Prediction Sites?
Yes, these platforms allow you to trade on the accuracy of climate forecasts. Rather than traditional betting, you take a Yes or No position on specific climate outcomes. For example, if you encounter a contract asking whether the current month will be the hottest on record, you simply purchase shares in the outcome you believe is most likely.
Unlike a sportsbook, where you are positioned against the "house", prediction platforms are peer-to-peer. You are trading against other market participants, with the platform acting as the neutral clearinghouse. To facilitate this, most sites charge a small liquidity or trading fee (often as low as $0.01 per share).
One of the primary advantages of this model is flexibility: you can sell your shares at any time before the contract resolves. If new satellite data or a revised NOAA forecast causes the price of your "Yes" shares to rise, you can exit your position early to realize a profit. In the US, these activities are typically overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates climate contracts as legitimate financial derivatives.
Our Expert Tip for Climate Traders (Updated 08/11/2026)
On Kalshi's "Number of tornadoes this month?" market, the forecast has cooled sharply: Above 50 still sits at a confident 96% (down 3, Yes 97¢/No 4¢), but Above 75 has dropped hard to 60% (down 25 points today, Yes 59¢/No 47¢), and Above 100 sits at just 4%, on a thin $4,984 in volume.
The chart backs this up: after holding in the 115-120 range through late July, the count estimate has been grinding steadily lower through August, with today's 25-point move on Above 75 the sharpest single-day drop yet.
With volume this thin, a swing like that can come from just a handful of trades, so weigh the direction more than the exact size of the move. Above 75 is the strike to watch, since it's now a genuine coin-flip rather than the near-certainty it looked like a week ago, making it the highest-conviction entry on the board if you have a view on where the month lands.
Pros and Cons of Climate Prediction Sites
Pros and Cons
- Easy to make forecasts
- Various markets
- Peer-to-peer predictions
- Bonuses are often scarce at these sites
Top 5 Prediction Sites That Allow Climate Forecasts
Weather is one of the few categories where nature itself settles every contract, and each platform handles that differently. Here's how Kalshi, Polymarket, OG, Crypto.com, and MooMoo structure their climate markets, from daily city forecasts to season-long hurricane market questions.
Here’s our experience making climate predictions at these trading apps:
| Climate prediction sites |
Climate market details |
| Kalshi |
Daily and hourly temperature brackets for a dozen-plus US cities, hurricane landfall and category markets, snow and rainfall thresholds, broader climate change questions, and natural disaster contracts (wildfires, earthquakes, and similar events) |
| Polymarket |
Daily high-temperature markets across cities on six continents, hurricane landfall probability and season-long storm totals, monthly tornado counts, ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) state markets, and questions on where the current year ranks among the hottest on record |
| OG |
A small set of long-horizon climate questions, most notably where the current year will rank among the hottest years on record |
| Crypto.com |
Long-horizon climate contracts such as the year's ranking among hottest years on record, offered within its broader Predict category alongside politics and economics |
| MooMoo |
Climate and weather listed as an official supported category, integrated into the same brokerage app used for stocks and crypto, though daily city-level granularity is thinner than Kalshi or Polymarket |
Kalshi
Kalshi: Pros & Cons
- Fully CFTC-regulated exchange
- Diverse markets including sports, politics, and economics
- Supports PayPal, Venmo, and Crypto deposits
- Highly rated mobile app for iOS and Android
- Trading fees apply to both makers and takers
- Bank withdrawals can take several business days
Kalshi's climate markets are built around granularity. A single city's daily high can list six or more overlapping temperature brackets, letting traders express a precise view rather than a broad directional call, and every contract settles against a specific, verifiable data source like an NWS station report.
Beyond daily weather, Kalshi runs standing categories for hurricanes, natural disasters, and broader climate change questions, with an "Ideas" section where traders can propose new markets directly to the platform. Price updates use color indicators to flag real-time moves as new forecast data lands.
Polymarket
Pros and Cons of Polymarket
- Licensed by CFTC
- Covers various real-life events
- Dedicated mobile app
Polymarket treats climate as a data-science problem as much as a trading category. Temperature-record markets cite specific datasets like NOAA NCEI, NASA GISS, or Berkeley Earth, and hurricane markets resolve against NHC advisories for landfall and HURDAT2 for final season totals, with the exact source locked in at market creation.
That precision matters because these datasets can differ by hundredths of a degree, and traders who read the underlying data before headlines catch up can find real edges.
Beyond individual storms and daily highs, the category extends into ENSO state markets and questions on where a given year ranks among the hottest on record.
OG
OG: Pros and Cons
- Secure and regulated by the CFTC
- No user limiting on trades
- Wide range of market categories
- Welcome bonus for new traders
- Sports contracts are restricted in some states
OG keeps its climate offering focused rather than exhaustive, anchored by a standout contract asking where the current year will rank among the hottest ever recorded. That's a deliberate choice, as rather than competing with Kalshi's dozens of daily city brackets, OG leans into the kind of big-picture climate question that a broader audience already follows in the news.
Contracts trade through Crypto.com Derivatives North America, and OG's social layer, including leaderboards and live chat, carries over to climate markets the same way it does across the rest of the app.
Crypto.com
Crypto.com: Pros & Cons
- Competition-based promotions
- iOS & Android apps
- Minimalist website design
- Beginner-friendly
Crypto.com treats climate as one thread in a much larger event-contract fabric, all running through Crypto.com Derivatives North America under CFTC oversight.
A contract on the year's temperature ranking sits in the same interface as the platform's economics, politics, sports, and culture markets, using the same Market and Limit Order tools and the same fully collateralized structure.
That consistency matters for traders who want to build a diversified book of predictions without learning different mechanics for each category.
MooMoo
MooMoo Prediction Markets: Pros and Cons
- Already received regulatory approval from US regulators
- Economics, sports, and politics prediction markets
- Multiple customer support options are likely
MooMoo lists Climate and Weather as one of its officially supported prediction market categories, sitting inside the same brokerage app used for stocks, options, and crypto. Contracts run through CFTC-regulated infrastructure, with MooMoo's real-time news feeds and probability tracking tools applied to climate positions the same way they're applied to earnings or Fed-decision contracts elsewhere in the app.
Because climate sits alongside MooMoo's broader event-contract lineup, which also spans World Cup outcomes, elections, and economic data, a trader building a diversified prediction portfolio doesn't need a separate weather-focused app. For anyone who already manages a MooMoo brokerage account, climate contracts are simply another line item in a familiar portfolio view.
Criteria for Choosing Our Top 5 Sites for Climate Predictions
Before picking our top sites that support predicting the weather, here are the criteria that informed our decision:
🌍 Various Climate Markets
The first thing we always look for is the available climate prediction market. We prioritize sites with numerous markets for climate events. For context, the prediction-trading app should feature climate contracts for rain and snow, climate change, daily temperatures, and natural disasters. That way, traders will have various options to try.
All the prediction trading sites we recommended in this article are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This is one of the first things we check for, as we wouldn't want to include any site that doesn't operate within the legal framework. CFTC regulation ensures these sites maintain top-notch security for traders while upholding market integrity.
📊 Other Prediction Categories
Although our focus is on making predictions on climate events, we ensure that any site on our list features other markets as well. We look for contracts in categories such as sports, crypto, politics, elections, culture, finance, and the economy. This ensures traders won't get bored making forecasts on the same topic. For instance, we enjoy making political predictions at Kalshi. You can forecast major elections on the site.
Security is one of the criteria we use to vet any prediction-trading company we may recommend. We always choose sites that protect their traders. Hence, we check for advanced SSL encryption technology and two-factor authentication for additional security.
Although prediction sites are not big on bonuses, some of these trading brands usually offer promotions to help traders forecast more events. We usually look out for sites where traders can access these promotions. For instance, Kalshi offers two bug bounty programs. As for Polymarket, you get two regular promotions ($1 on active order limits and an annualized rate for long-term orders).
How to Sign Up at Climate Prediction Sites
Ready to start trading on weather anomalies, hurricane season outcomes, and macro environmental trends on
prediction market apps? The good news is that signing up to a CFTC-regulated event exchange or a decentralized weather prediction platform is straightforward. Because these platforms function as financial exchanges rather than traditional betting sites, the onboarding process mirrors opening a standard retail brokerage account.
Follow our step-by-step guide below to securely set up your account and start trading climate prediction markets today.
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Select a Top-Rated Climate Prediction Exchange: Browse our list of recommended climate prediction platforms and click any of our links to jump straight to their official site.
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Register and Create Your Account:
Hit the "Sign Up" or "Register" button on the platform's homepage or mobile app. Provide your email, full legal name, date of birth, and create a strong password. Then, enter the verification code they text or email you.
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Complete Identity Verification (KYC Compliance):
Because legal financial platforms in the US have to follow standard consumer protection laws, you'll need to complete a quick identity check. Just snap a clear photo of your government-issued ID (like a driver's license) to unlock full access to the trading dashboard.
-
Fund Your Trading Wallet:
Head over to the "Deposit" or banking tab to load cash into your account. Depending on the platform you go with, you can instantly link your bank via ACH transfer, use a debit card, or securely connect a crypto wallet to deposit stablecoins like USDC.
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Execute Your First Climate Prediction Trade:
Head to the climate and weather section of the exchange to check out live contracts tracking daily temperature anomalies, hurricane naming races, or long-term global emissions targets. Pick your stance, choose your contract, and lock in your first "Yes" or "No" position.
Top Climate Forecast Markets to Try at Your Chosen Prediction Trading Sites
After making loads of predictions on climate events, here are the major markets we observed at these sites:
- Snow & Rain Forecasts:
These markets focus on short-term precipitation outcomes, such as whether rain or snow will occur on a specific date or within a given month. For example, you might trade on whether Los Angeles receives measurable rainfall in December. Contracts here tend to be highly time-sensitive and settle quickly.
- Hurricane Activity:
Hurricane markets allow traders to forecast storm formation, landfall, or seasonal outcomes. While reviewing climate markets on Kalshi, we traded on whether at least one hurricane would make U.S. landfall during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
- Climate Change & Policy Outcomes:
These longer-term markets focus on broader climate goals and policy benchmarks. Examples include whether the U.S. will meet specific emissions or climate targets by 2030 or 2035, making them more macro-focused than day-to-day weather forecasts.
- Daily Temperature Ranges:
Temperature markets let you trade on whether a location will hit, exceed, or fall below a defined temperature on a given day. On Polymarket, we forecasted daily temperature outcomes for cities in Texas using over/under-style ranges.
- Natural Disasters & Extreme Weather:
Some platforms also offer markets tied to extreme events such as tornadoes, tropical storms, or hurricanes. For example, we traded on the number of tornadoes occurring in December, with outcomes like “Above 50” or “Below 40,” purchasing a Yes contract on the higher-than-expected scenario.
- Global Temperature Records & Anomalies:
These macro markets track broader, systemic climate shifts rather than single-day weather spikes. These contracts often use over/under structures based on precise data from agencies like NASA or NOAA, making them highly popular for traders tracking long-term global warming trends.
- Wildfire & Air Quality Indexes (AQI):
Driven by seasonal climate shifts, these environmental degradation markets focus on active destruction and pollution levels. For example, you can trade on whether the AQI in a major metro area like Seattle or New York will cross into the "Hazardous" threshold for a specific number of consecutive days due to drifting smoke.
Conclusion – Trade Climate Prediction Markets at the Top Sites
Prediction trading sites have become our favorite place to unwind after we discovered them a few months ago. You can use your in-depth knowledge to forecast real-world events, including climate change and temperatures.
While searching for the best prediction trading apps to forecast climate-related events, we found Kalshi and Polymarket to be two of the best. These sites are CFTC-regulated and offer numerous markets in each prediction category.
Depending on your preferred site, you may score bonuses and promotions. The trading fees are low, and you can always adjust or cancel your forecasts before the event occurs.
If you're ready to forecast hurricanes, snow, rain, and other related climate events, click the banners on this page to sign up at your chosen prediction trading site.
1.
Open Kalshi
18+ and present in participating states. Terms and conditions apply. http://kalshi.com/tc/500
2.
Deposit $10 get a $20 Trading Bonus
Open Polymarket
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
3.
Trade $10, Get $10 Welcome Offer
Open OG
18+ If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER Prediction is an event contract that is a derivatives product offered by Crypto.com: Buy, Sell & Trade Crypto with a Trusted App | Derivatives North America (CDNA), a CFTC-regulated exchange through OG technology. Trading on CDNA involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. By trading you risk losing your cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on CDNA is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Terms apply. Trading involves risk of loss. Bonus credits cannot be withdrawn immediately.
4.
5.
Best Alternative
Open Kalshi
Underdog Predict is a registered FCM offering event contracts. Trades may be placed on CDNA, a registered DCM, powered by UDM Services, LLC. Trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for all. Must be a U.S. resident. Terms apply: underdogpredict.com. Content is promotional and is not a recommendation to trade.
Trading on Climate FAQs
🌡️What Are Climate Prediction Markets?
They are financial exchanges where users trade event contracts based on weather and environmental data. Prices fluctuate between $0.01 and $0.99, directly reflecting the market's estimated probability of a specific climate outcome occurring.
⚖️Is Trading on Climate Events Legal in the US?
Yes. Platforms like Kalshi are regulated as Designated Contract Markets by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). These are classified as financial derivatives, providing a legal, federally overseen alternative to unregulated offshore sites.
🛰️How Are Climate Markets Settled?
Contracts are resolved using objective, third-party data from "Truth Sources" like the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the ECMWF. This ensures that payouts are based on hard scientific data rather than news reports.
📊How Accurate Are Climate Market Forecasts?
Because participants have "skin in the game," these markets often act as a real-time consensus. They frequently aggregate data faster than traditional models, with prices shifting the moment new satellite or atmospheric data becomes available.
For guidance on responsible trading and risk awareness, the following free official resources are available:
To make sure you get accurate and helpful information, this guide has been edited by
Mac Douglass
as part of our fact-checking process.
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