Quick Facts About Climate Betting Sites
- You can't place climate bets at prediction trading sites.
- Kalshi, Robinhood, and Polymarket are our best climate prediction sites.
- You can make forecasts across various climate markets, including snow and rain, hurricanes, climate change, daily temperatures, and natural disasters.
- Some climate prediction sites offer bonuses and promotions for making forecasts.
Can You Bet on Climate at Prediction Sites?
The simple answer is no. You can't place wagers on climate prediction apps, as they aren't regular bookmakers. These sites offer prediction trading on real-world events, including climate outcomes.
Rather than betting, you only make Yes or No forecasts on climate events. For instance, we found an event contract asking whether this would be the hottest year ever. All we had to do was choose Yes or No.
Unlike sportsbooks, where you wager against the betting site, prediction trading apps let you trade against fellow forecasters rather than the brand. However, you’ll need to pay a trading fee (which varies by prediction site but is usually about $0.01).
Once your forecast is successful, you'll receive your reward. You can adjust or sell your forecasts even before the event day. Climate prediction sites in the US are often licensed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Pros and Cons of Climate Prediction Sites
Pros and Cons
- Easy to make forecasts
- Various markets
- Peer-to-peer predictions
- Bonuses are often scarce at these sites
Top 3 Prediction Sites That Allow Climate Forecasts
While searching for where to make climate predictions, we found Kalshi, Robinhood, and Polymarket. These sites offer multiple climate markets, low trading fees, and top-notch security. They're also regulated by the CFTC.
Here’s our experience making climate predictions at these trading apps:
| Climate prediction sites |
Available climate markets |
| Kalshi |
Hurricanes, rain and snow, climate change, natural disasters, and daily temperature |
| Robinhood |
Daily temperature, snow, and rain |
| Polymarket |
Daily temperature |
Kalshi – Best Climate Prediction Site with Numerous Natural Disaster Contracts
Kalshi: Pros & Cons
- Regulated by the CFTC
- Wide range of political & macro event markets
- Clean, user-friendly trading interface
- Lower liquidity on some niche markets
- Not designed for high-frequency traders
Ever since we discovered Kalshi, it has become our favorite for climate predictions. Although you'll find many climate markets on the site, we prefer using the trading app to forecast natural disasters.
Remember that this isn't the same as
betting on natural disasters. That's because Kalshi isn't a betting site. You can only make Yes/No forecasts on events. Immediately after we signed up on the site, we made predictions about the number of tornadoes this month.
We also forecast the number of tropical storms and major Atlantic hurricanes for next year. Remember, you can adjust or sell your forecasts before the event occurs.
Robinhood – Best Climate Prediction Site for Snow and Rain Forecasts
Although other climate prediction sites on this list feature event contracts in the rain and snow market, Robinhood is our go-to site for such related forecasts. The trading brand offers numerous contracts on snow and rain outcomes across all US states.
While reviewing the site, we predicted whether it would snow in Denver in December 2025. This same event contract is available for other US states like Colorado, Washington, Chicago, and Los Angeles. Simply study the weather and make your forecasts. We love making rain and snow forecasts, as they’re usually short-term compared to forecasting natural disasters.
Polymarket – Best Prediction Site for Making Temperature Predictions
Polymarket is another top-rated climate prediction site in the US. After signing up on the prediction-trading app, we discovered it didn't have a dedicated climate section. However, you’ll find many event contracts on climate outcomes when you click the All button.
Also, you can use the search feature to find climate event contracts. For context, we searched for temperature and saw various contracts for Dallas, Atlanta, and even Toronto.
We prefer using Polymarket to make
predictions on the temperature
in our state. Unlike other prediction brands on this list, Polymarket features promotions to make forecasts. The daily bonus offers $1 on active limit orders. There's also an annualized rate for long-term contracts.
Criteria for Choosing Our Top 3 Sites for Climate Predictions
Before picking our top sites that support
predicting the weather, here are the criteria that informed our decision:
🌍 Various Climate Markets
The first thing we always look for is the available climate prediction market. We prioritize sites with numerous markets for climate events. For context, the prediction-trading app should feature climate contracts for rain and snow, climate change, daily temperatures, and natural disasters. That way, traders will have various options to try.
All the prediction trading sites we recommended in this article are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This is one of the first things we check for, as we wouldn't want to include any site that doesn't operate within the legal framework. CFTC regulation ensures these sites maintain top-notch security for traders while upholding market integrity.
📊 Other Prediction Categories
Although our focus is on making predictions on climate events, we ensure that any site on our list features other markets as well. We look for contracts in categories such as sports, crypto, politics, elections, culture, finance, and the economy. This ensures traders won't get bored making forecasts on the same topic. For instance, we enjoy making political predictions at Kalshi. You can forecast major elections on the site.
Security is one of the criteria we use to vet any prediction-trading company we may recommend. We always choose sites that protect their traders. Hence, we check for advanced SSL encryption technology and two-factor authentication for additional security.
Although prediction sites are not big on bonuses, some of these trading brands usually offer promotions to help traders forecast more events. We usually look out for sites where traders can access these promotions. For instance, Kalshi offers two bug bounty programs. You can take advantage of the rewards to enjoy an extended prediction session. When you move your assets from a former broker to Robinhood, the site will offer you up to $75. You can use it to make forecasts. As for Polymarket, you get two regular promotions ($1 on active order limits and an annualized rate for long-term orders).
How to Sign Up at Climate Prediction Sites
Ready to start making predictions on climate events? Follow the steps below:
-
Pick from our list of top climate prediction sites
Choose from our recommended prediction sites and click the link on the on-page banners to visit the official website. We carefully selected these sites after ensuring they met our criteria, especially regarding security, regulatory compliance, and the number of climate prediction markets.
-
Create an account
Click the Sign Up or Register button to enter your details and create an account. You'll be required to provide your email address, password, name, and date of birth. Your chosen prediction site may also send you a code to verify your email and phone number.
-
Fund your account
You need to deposit to start making predictions on climate and other real-world events. Check the Banking section to see available payment methods and fund your account. Depending on your chosen site, you can use fiat or cryptocurrencies.
-
Start predicting climate outcomes
Once you've made your deposit, start predicting climate outcomes. If you prefer to make
AI predictions
on these sites, we recommend starting with Polymarket or Robinhood.
Polymarket is a decentralized site, and Robinhood runs on algorithms suitable for various AI models.
Top Climate Forecast Markets to Try at Your Chosen Prediction Trading Sites
After making loads of predictions on climate events, here are the major markets we observed at these sites:
- Snow & Rain Forecasts:
These markets focus on short-term precipitation outcomes, such as whether rain or snow will occur on a specific date or within a given month. For example, you might trade on whether Los Angeles receives measurable rainfall in December. Contracts here tend to be highly time-sensitive and settle quickly.
- Hurricane Activity:
Hurricane markets allow traders to forecast storm formation, landfall, or seasonal outcomes. While reviewing climate markets on Kalshi, we traded on whether at least one hurricane would make U.S. landfall during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
- Climate Change & Policy Outcomes:
These longer-term markets focus on broader climate goals and policy benchmarks. Examples include whether the U.S. will meet specific emissions or climate targets by 2025 or 2030, making them more macro-focused than day-to-day weather forecasts.
- Daily Temperature Ranges:
Temperature markets let you trade on whether a location will hit, exceed, or fall below a defined temperature on a given day. On Polymarket, we forecasted daily temperature outcomes for cities in Texas using over/under-style ranges.
- Natural Disasters & Extreme Weather:
Some platforms also offer markets tied to extreme events such as tornadoes, tropical storms, or hurricanes. For example, we traded on the number of tornadoes occurring in December, with outcomes like “Above 20” or “Below 20,” purchasing a Yes contract on the higher-than-expected scenario.
Conclusion – Trade Climate Prediction Markets at the Top Sites
Prediction trading sites have become our favorite place to unwind after we discovered them a few months ago. You can use your in-depth knowledge to forecast real-world events, including climate change and temperatures.
While searching for the best prediction trading apps to forecast climate-related events, we found Kalshi, Robinhood, and Polymarket. These sites are CFTC-regulated and offer numerous markets in each prediction category.
Depending on your preferred site, you may score bonuses and promotions. The trading fees are low, and you can always adjust or cancel your forecasts before the event occurs.
If you're ready to forecast hurricanes, snow, rain, and other related climate events, click the banners on this page to sign up at your chosen prediction trading site.
1.
Betting on Climate FAQs
🌍 Is Climate Betting Allowed in US Sportsbooks?
No. You can't place bets on climate events at sportsbooks. Instead, you can make Yes/No forecasts on climate-related events at prediction sites.
💰 What Sites Offer the Best Climate Betting Odds?
Kalshi, Robinhood, and Polymarket are the top climate prediction sites. You can't bet at these sites. As such, you won't find betting odds. However, each event contract has its own probability of occurring.
🌦️ What Climate Betting Markets Are Available on Prediction Trading Sites?
You can make forecasts on hurricanes, snow and rain, daily temperature, natural disasters, and climate change at prediction sites. These markets have various contracts to suit your prediction needs.
For guidance on responsible trading and risk awareness, the following free official resources are available:
To make sure you get accurate and helpful information, this guide has been edited by
Mac Douglass
as part of our fact-checking process.
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