Cruz Azul vs. Pumas UNAM prediction, odds, Liga MX picks [5/21/2026]

Cruz Azul will take on Pumas UNAM in the Liga MX playoffs on Thursday, starting at 10:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven Liga MX model predicts Cruz Azul as the most likely winner of the Cruz Azul vs. Pumas UNAM game.

This article offers further insights into Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.

Cruz Azul vs. Pumas UNAM prediction: Who will win?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's Liga MX matchup between Cruz Azul and Pumas UNAM, forming part of our Liga MX predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model indicates a 53.9% chance of Cruz Azul winning, a 21.6% chance for Pumas UNAM, and a 24.5% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 52% chance of staying under, according to our model.

Cruz Azul vs. Pumas UNAM odds

We have sourced the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Moneyline

Cruz Azul	Pumas UNAM	Draw
-145	+390	+290

Total Goals

Over 2.5	Under 2.5
-120	-116

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Cruz Azul vs. Pumas UNAM picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Moneyline	Pumas UNAM	+390
Total Goals	Under 2.5	-116

According to our Liga MX best bets, the top play to make on this game is Pumas UNAM to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Cruz Azul vs. Pumas UNAM: Correct score and BTTS predictions

The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-0 Cruz Azul win being the most probable:

Final Score	Probability
CAZ 1-0 PUM	12.3%
CAZ 1-1 PUM	11.7%
CAZ 2-0 PUM	10.2%

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 49.3% chance of both sides finding the net and a 50.7% chance that at least one doesn’t.

Cruz Azul vs. Pumas UNAM game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's matchup between Cruz Azul and Pumas UNAM is scheduled to begin at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Cruz Azul vs. Pumas UNAM
• Date: Thursday, May 21, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Cruz Azul has a 53.9% win probability on Thursday, Pumas UNAM has a 21.6% win probability, and there is a 24.5% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.