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Guadalajara vs. Tigres UANL prediction, odds, Liga MX picks [5/9/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Guadalajara vs Tigres UANL predictions for Liga MX Saturday.
Guadalajara and Tigres UANL are scheduled to meet in the Liga MX playoffs on Saturday, with kickoff at 9:07 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven Liga MX model predicts Guadalajara as the most likely winner of the Guadalajara vs. Tigres UANL game.
This article offers further insights into Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.
Guadalajara vs. Tigres UANL prediction: Who will win?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's Liga MX game between Guadalajara and Tigres UANL, forming part of our Liga MX predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently indicates a 41.5% chance of Guadalajara winning, a 32.1% chance for Tigres UANL, and a 26.4% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 53% chance of staying under, according to our model.
Guadalajara vs. Tigres UANL odds
We have sourced the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Guadalajara | Tigres UANL | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +125 | +225 | +250 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -105 | -130 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Guadalajara vs. Tigres UANL picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tigres UANL | +225 |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5 | -105 |
According to our Liga MX best bets, the top play to make on this game is Tigres UANL to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Guadalajara vs. Tigres UANL: Correct score and BTTS predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| GUA 1-1 TUA | 12.6% |
| GUA 1-0 TUA | 10.6% |
| GUA 0-1 TUA | 9.1% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 52.1% chance of both sides finding the net and a 47.9% chance that at least one doesn’t.
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, meaning the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.
Guadalajara vs. Tigres UANL game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's action between Guadalajara and Tigres UANL is scheduled to commence at 9:07 PM ET.
- Who: Guadalajara vs. Tigres UANL
- Date: Saturday, May 9, 2026
- Time: 9:07 PM ET/6:07PM PT
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Guadalajara has a 41.5% win probability on Saturday, Tigres UANL has a 32.1% win probability, and there is a 26.4% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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