Tigres UANL vs. Guadalajara Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Tigres UANL vs. Guadalajara Liga MX match on May 9, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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LIGA MX
Tigres UANL
0
2
Guadalajara
GuadalajaraGCH
Score Summary
Tigres UANLUANL
S. Sandoval (74')
Soccer ball icon
S. Sandoval (77')
Soccer ball icon
F. Reyes (90')
Red Card icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Guadalajara
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Tigres UANL
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Red Card
    F. Reyes (Tigres UANL) sent off with a straight red card
  2. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Guadalajara Chivas: Y. Padilla replaces E. Alvarez
  3. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Guadalajara Chivas: M. Tapias replaces S. Sandoval
  4. 90'
    Yellow Card
    R. Guerrero (Tigres UANL) cautioned
  5. 90'
    Yellow Card
    A. Gignac (Tigres UANL) cautioned
  6. 90'
    Yellow Card
    F. Gonzalez (Guadalajara Chivas) cautioned
  7. 84'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Guadalajara Chivas: G. Sepulveda replaces R. Ledezma
  8. 84'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Guadalajara Chivas: S. Aguayo replaces R. Marin
  9. 80'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Tigres UANL: M. Flores replaces J. Garza
  10. 80'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Tigres UANL: A. Gignac replaces J. Angulo
  11. 77'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Guadalajara Chivas by S. Sandoval, assisted by O. Govea
    0-2
  12. 74'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Guadalajara Chivas by S. Sandoval
    0-1
  13. 68'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Guadalajara Chivas: M. Gomez replaces J. Castillo
  14. 62'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Tigres UANL: R. Guerrero replaces J. Vigon
  15. 60'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Tigres UANL: V. Lorona replaces R. Aguirre
  16. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Tigres UANL: D. Lainez replaces D. A. Sanchez Guevara
  17. 44'
    Yellow Card
    J. Garza (Tigres UANL) cautioned

Tigres UANL vs. Guadalajara: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Tigres UANL vs. Guadalajara
  • Date: Saturday, May 9, 2026
  • Time: 9:07 PM ET

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Tigres UANL +260, Guadalajara +115, draw +260
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-115/+100)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Tigres UANL: 33.7%
  • Guadalajara: 39.5%
  • Draw: 26.8%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Liga MX data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Tigres UANL 1-1 Guadalajara (12.7%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
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Who will win Tigres UANL vs. Guadalajara? Prediction & correct score

Guadalajara is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 39.5%.

The most likely correct score is Tigres UANL 1-1 Guadalajara.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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