...
...
Read Article
Toluca vs. Pachuca prediction, odds, Liga MX picks [5/3/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Toluca vs Pachuca predictions for Liga MX Sunday.
Toluca will square off with Pachuca in the Liga MX playoffs on Sunday, starting at 9:15 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced Liga MX model projects Toluca as the most likely winner of the Toluca vs. Pachuca game.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's match, including best bets and picks.
Toluca vs. Pachuca prediction: Who will win?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Sunday's Liga MX matchup between Toluca and Pachuca, forming part of our Liga MX predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently suggests a 59.4% chance of Toluca winning, a 20.0% chance for Pachuca, and a 20.6% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 63% chance of going over, according to our model.
Toluca vs. Pachuca odds
We have researched the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Toluca | Pachuca | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| -120 | +300 | +290 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -155 | +110 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Toluca vs. Pachuca picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Toluca | -120 |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5 | -155 |
According to our Liga MX best bets, the top play to make on this game is Toluca to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Toluca vs. Pachuca: Correct score and BTTS predictions
The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 2-1 Toluca win being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| TOL 2-1 PCH | 9.8% |
| TOL 1-1 PCH | 9.3% |
| TOL 2-0 PCH | 8.5% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 60.1% chance of both sides finding the net and a 39.9% chance that at least one doesn’t.
Toluca vs. Pachuca game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's game between Toluca and Pachuca is scheduled to start at 9:15 PM ET.
- Who: Toluca vs. Pachuca
- Date: Sunday, May 3, 2026
- Time: 9:15 PM ET/6:15PM PT
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Toluca has a 59.4% win probability on Sunday, Pachuca has a 20.0% win probability, and there is a 20.6% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
Advertiser disclosure