Pachuca vs. Toluca Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Pachuca vs. Toluca Liga MX match on May 3, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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LIGA MX
Pachuca
1
:
0
Toluca
TolucaTOL
Score Summary
PachucaPAC
E. Valencia (8')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Toluca
    0.2%
  • Draw
    6.1%
  • Pachuca
    93.7%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Pachuca: S. Rodriguez replaces E. Montiel
  2. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Pachuca: J. Berlanga replaces Kenedy
  3. 90'
    Yellow Card
    (Pachuca) cautioned
  4. 82'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: M. Isais replaces A. Alvarez
  5. 76'
    Yellow Card
    A. Alvarez (Toluca) cautioned
  6. 75'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Pachuca: R. Lopez replaces C. Sanchez
  7. 75'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: F. Rossi replaces P. Perez
  8. 64'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Pachuca: A. Dominguez replaces O. Idrissi
  9. 60'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: Paulinho replaces S. Cordova
  10. 60'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: N. Castro replaces J. Angulo
  11. 60'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: S. Simon replaces D. Barbosa
  12. 41'
    Yellow Card
    A. Bautista (Pachuca) cautioned
  13. 8'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Pachuca by E. Valencia, assisted by E. Montiel
    1-0

Pachuca vs. Toluca: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Pachuca vs. Toluca
  • Date: Sunday, May 3, 2026
  • Time: 9:15 PM ET

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Pachuca +300, Toluca -105, draw +280
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-130/+115)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Pachuca: 19.7%
  • Toluca: 59.6%
  • Draw: 20.7%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Liga MX data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Pachuca 1-2 Toluca (9.9%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
  • Correct score probabilities

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Who will win Pachuca vs. Toluca? Prediction & correct score

Toluca is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 59.6%.

The most likely correct score is Pachuca 1-2 Toluca.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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Responsible gambling

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