Pachuca vs. Toluca prediction, odds, Liga MX picks [5/10/2026]

Pachuca and Toluca will meet in the Liga MX playoffs on Sunday, with kickoff at 7:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven Liga MX model projects Toluca as the most likely winner of the Pachuca vs. Toluca game.

This article offers a closer look at Sunday's match, including best bets and picks.

Pachuca vs. Toluca prediction: Who will win?

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's Liga MX game between Pachuca and Toluca, forming part of our Liga MX predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently indicates a 30.6% chance of Pachuca winning, a 45.8% chance for Toluca, and a 23.6% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 60% chance of going over, according to our model.

Pachuca vs. Toluca odds

We have researched the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Moneyline

Pachuca	Toluca	Draw
+170	+150	+250

Total Goals

Over 2.5	Under 2.5
-145	+105

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Pachuca vs. Toluca picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Moneyline	Toluca	+150
Total Goals	Over 2.5	-145

According to our Liga MX best bets, the top play to make on this game is Toluca to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Pachuca vs. Toluca: Correct score and BTTS predictions

The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

Final Score	Probability
PCH 1-1 TOL	10.7%
PCH 1-2 TOL	9.2%
PCH 0-1 TOL	7.9%

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 61.1% chance of both sides finding the net and a 38.9% chance that at least one doesn’t.

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score may differ from our predicted winner.

Pachuca vs. Toluca game-day updates and essential details

Sunday's action between Pachuca and Toluca is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Pachuca vs. Toluca
• Date: Sunday, May 10, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Pachuca has a 30.6% win probability on Sunday, Toluca has a 45.8% win probability, and there is a 23.6% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.