Pumas UNAM vs. Toluca Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Pumas UNAM vs. Toluca Liga MX match on July 21, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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LIGA MX
Pumas UNAM
2
1
Toluca
TolucaTOL
Score Summary
Pumas UNAMUNAM
J. Diaz Price (14')
Soccer ball icon
V. Arteaga (57')
Soccer ball icon
S. Cordova (63')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Toluca
    0.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Pumas UNAM
    100.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for UNAM Pumas: G. Martinez replaces R. Morales
  2. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for UNAM Pumas: T. Leone replaces U. Antuna
  3. 88'
    Substitution
    Substitution for UNAM Pumas: A. Medina replaces Juninho
  4. 86'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: S. Simon replaces D. Barbosa
  5. 80'
    Yellow Card
    R. Lopez (UNAM Pumas) cautioned
  6. 76'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: C. Carrillo replaces B. A. Garcia Caprizo
  7. 66'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: N. Castro replaces V. Guzman
  8. 66'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: F. Romero replaces J. Angulo
  9. 66'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: J. Gallardo replaces A. Vega
  10. 63'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for UNAM Pumas by S. Cordova, assisted by R. Lopez
    2-1
  11. 57'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for UNAM Pumas by V. Arteaga, assisted by R. Morales
    1-1
  12. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for UNAM Pumas: S. Cordova replaces P. Bennevendo
  13. 17'
    Yellow Card
    Helinho (Toluca) cautioned
  14. 14'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by J. Diaz Price, assisted by Helinho
    0-1

Pumas UNAM vs. Toluca: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Pumas UNAM vs. Toluca
  • Date: Tuesday, July 21, 2026
  • Time: 11:05 PM ET

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Pumas UNAM +450, Toluca -170, draw +320
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-150/+133)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Pumas UNAM: 20.2%
  • Toluca: 57.7%
  • Draw: 22.0%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Liga MX data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Pumas UNAM 1-1 Toluca (10.4%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
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Who will win Pumas UNAM vs. Toluca? Prediction & correct score

Toluca is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 57.7%.

The most likely correct score is Pumas UNAM 1-1 Toluca.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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