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Toluca vs. Monterrey prediction, odds, Liga MX Semi-Final picks [12/6/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Toluca vs Monterrey predictions for Liga MX Saturday.
Toluca will face Monterrey in the Liga MX playoffs on Saturday, beginning at 8:00PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced Liga MX model projects Toluca as the most likely winner of the Toluca vs. Monterrey game.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Toluca vs. Monterrey prediction: Who will win?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's Liga MX matchup between Toluca and Monterrey 10,000 times as part of our Liga MX predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently suggests a 59.0% chance of Toluca winning, a 20.9% chance for Monterrey, and a 20.1% chance of a draw.
Toluca vs. Monterrey odds
We have sourced the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Market | Toluca | Monterrey | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -150 | +370 | +360 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Toluca vs. Monterrey picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Monterrey | +370 |
According to our best Liga MX bets, the top play to make on this game is Monterrey to win.
Toluca vs. Monterrey: Correct score and BTTS predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scoresaccording to our model, with a 2-1 Toluca win being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| TOL 2-1 MNT | 9.6% |
| TOL 1-1 MNT | 8.7% |
| TOL 2-0 MNT | 7.7% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 63.6% chance that both Toluca and Monterrey score, and a 36.4% probability of at least one team being held goalless.
These predictions are based on each team's average score after 10,000 simulations.
Toluca vs. Monterrey game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's game between Toluca and Monterrey is scheduled to start at 8:00PM ET.
- Who: Toluca vs. Monterrey
- Date: Saturday, December 6, 2025
- Time: 8:00PM ET/5:00PM PT
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Toluca has a 59.0% win probability on Saturday, Monterrey has a 20.9% win probability, and there is a 20.1% chance that the game will end in a draw.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Toluca vs. Monterrey insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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