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Toluca vs. Juarez prediction, odds, Liga MX picks [3/8/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Toluca vs Juarez predictions for Liga MX Sunday.
Toluca and Juarez are scheduled to meet in the Liga MX playoffs on Sunday, with kickoff at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven Liga MX model predicts Toluca as the most likely winner of the Toluca vs. Juarez game.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Toluca vs. Juarez prediction: Who will win?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's Liga MX game between Toluca and Juarez 10,000 times as part of our Liga MX predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently suggests a 72.5% chance of Toluca winning, a 10.9% chance for Juarez, and a 16.6% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 63% chance of going over, according to our model.
Toluca vs. Juarez odds
We have sourced the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Toluca | Juarez | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| -300 | +800 | +430 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -158 | +128 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Toluca vs. Juarez picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Juarez | +800 |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5 | -158 |
According to our Liga MX best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 2.5 total goals.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Toluca vs. Juarez: Correct score and BTTS predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 2-0 Toluca win being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| TOL 2-0 JUA | 11.4% |
| TOL 2-1 JUA | 9.4% |
| TOL 1-0 JUA | 9.4% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 51.3% chance of both sides finding the net and a 48.7% chance that at least one doesn’t.
Toluca vs. Juarez game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's matchup between Toluca and Juarez is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Toluca vs. Juarez
- Date: Sunday, March 8, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Toluca has a 72.5% win probability on Sunday, Juarez has a 10.9% win probability, and there is a 16.6% chance that the game will end in a draw.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Toluca vs. Juarez insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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