Juarez vs. Toluca Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Juarez vs. Toluca Liga MX match on March 8, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro for full access.
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LIGA MX
Juarez
1
3
Mar 8, 7:00 PM ET
Toluca
Mar 8, 7:00 PM ET
TolucaTOL
Score Summary
JuarezJUA
Helinho (pen.) (53')
Soccer ball icon
A. Briseno (70')
Soccer ball icon
Paulinho (90')
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Guilherme Castilho (72')
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Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Toluca
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Juarez
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
90'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Toluca by Paulinho, assisted by M. Ruiz
1-3
86'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: P. Perez replaces N. Castro
81'
Substitution
Substitution for Juarez: J. Aquino replaces F. J. Nevarez Pulgarin
81'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: F. Pereira replaces Helinho
81'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: A. Vega replaces S. Cordova
76'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: J. Gallardo replaces M. Isais
76'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: Paulinho replaces F. Rossi
74'
Substitution
Substitution for Juarez: E. Ayon replaces O. Estupinan
72'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Juarez by Guilherme Castilho, assisted by R. Pizarro
1-2
70'
Yellow Card
J. Murillo (Juarez) cautioned
70'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Toluca by A. Briseno, assisted by S. Cordova
0-2
68'
Substitution
Substitution for Juarez: Guilherme Castilho replaces J. M. Torres Ramirez I.
68'
Substitution
Substitution for Juarez: H. E. Martinez Yepez replaces Monchu
68'
Substitution
Substitution for Juarez: L. Dupuy replaces Puma
58'
Yellow Card
F. J. Nevarez Pulgarin (Juarez) cautioned
57'
Yellow Card
D. Barbosa (Toluca) cautioned
53'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Toluca by Helinho (pen.)
0-1
49'
Yellow Card
M. Mosquera (Juarez) cautioned
2'
Yellow Card
Monchu (Juarez) cautioned

Juarez vs. Toluca: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Juarez vs. Toluca
  • Date: Sunday, March 8, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Juarez +510, Toluca -190, draw +340
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-143/+116)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Juarez: 11.7%
  • Toluca: 71.0%
  • Draw: 17.3%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Liga MX data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Juarez 0-2 Toluca (11.3%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
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Who will win Juarez vs. Toluca? Prediction & correct score

Toluca is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 71.0%.

The most likely correct score is Juarez 0-2 Toluca.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro to unlock today's best bets and complete betting analysis for this matchup.

Responsible gambling

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