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Toluca vs. Guadalajara prediction, odds, Liga MX picks [2/28/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Toluca vs Guadalajara predictions for Liga MX Saturday.
Toluca will take on Guadalajara in the Liga MX playoffs on Saturday, starting at 6:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced Liga MX model predicts Toluca as the most likely winner of the Toluca vs. Guadalajara game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Toluca vs. Guadalajara prediction: Who will win?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's Liga MX matchup between Toluca and Guadalajara 10,000 times as part of our Liga MX predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently suggests a 51.2% chance of Toluca winning, a 24.3% chance for Guadalajara, and a 24.6% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals also has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting, according to our model.
Toluca vs. Guadalajara odds
We have researched the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Toluca | Guadalajara | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +115 | +250 | +240 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -105 | -115 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Toluca vs. Guadalajara picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Toluca | +115 |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5 | -105 |
According to our best Liga MX bets, the top play to make on this game is Toluca to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Toluca vs. Guadalajara: Correct score and BTTS predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| TOL 1-1 GUA | 11.7% |
| TOL 1-0 GUA | 11.1% |
| TOL 2-1 GUA | 9.6% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 52.4% chance that both teams scoring, and a 47.6% probability of at least one team being held goalless.
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score may differ from our predicted winner.
Toluca vs. Guadalajara game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's matchup between Toluca and Guadalajara is scheduled to begin at 6:00 PM ET.
- Who: Toluca vs. Guadalajara
- Date: Saturday, February 28, 2026
- Time: 6:00 PM ET/3:00PM PT
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Toluca has a 51.2% win probability on Saturday, Guadalajara has a 24.3% win probability, and there is a 24.6% chance that the game will end in a draw.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Toluca vs. Guadalajara insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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