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Guadalajara vs. Toluca Prediction, Picks and Odds
Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Guadalajara vs. Toluca Liga MX match on February 28, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro for full access.
FINAL
LIGA MX
FINAL
LIGA MX
0
2
Feb 28, 6:00 PM ET
Feb 28, 6:00 PM ET
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Pre-Game PredictionsPre-Game
Pro Bets
Score Summary
J. Gallardo (pen.) (5')
J. Diaz (16')
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
- Toluca
- Guadalajara
Win Probability
Match Timeline
M. Ruiz (Toluca) cautioned
Substitution for Toluca: Luan replaces J. Gallardo
Substitution for Toluca: F. Arce replaces M. Ruiz
Substitution for Toluca: P. Perez replaces J. Angulo
Substitution for Toluca: Helinho replaces J. Diaz
A. Sepulveda (Guadalajara Chivas) cautioned
D. Aguirre (Guadalajara Chivas) cautioned
Substitution for Guadalajara Chivas: R. Marin replaces A. Gonzalez
F. Gonzalez (Guadalajara Chivas) cautioned
J. Gallardo (Toluca) cautioned
Substitution for Toluca: E. del Villar replaces S. Simon
Substitution for Guadalajara Chivas: S. Sandoval replaces J. Castillo
Substitution for Guadalajara Chivas: A. Sepulveda replaces E. Alvarez
Substitution for Guadalajara Chivas: H. Camberos replaces R. Ledezma
D. Barbosa (Toluca) cautioned
Substitution for Guadalajara Chivas: B. Gutierrez replaces L. Romo
Goal scored for Toluca by J. Diaz, assisted by Paulinho
0-2
F. Romero (Toluca) cautioned
Goal scored for Toluca by J. Gallardo (pen.)
0-1
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Guadalajara vs. Toluca: Match prediction & analysis
Match overview
- Teams: Guadalajara vs. Toluca
- Date: Saturday, February 28, 2026
- Time: 6:00 PM ET
Current betting odds
- Moneyline: Guadalajara +255, Toluca +115, draw +240
- Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-105/-115)
Dimers' win & correct score probabilities
- Guadalajara: 24.3%
- Toluca: 51.2%
- Draw: 24.6%
These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Liga MX data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.
Most likely correct score: Guadalajara 1-1 Toluca (11.7%)
Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.
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- Moneyline probabilities
- Total goals probabilities
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Who will win Guadalajara vs. Toluca? Prediction & correct score
Toluca is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 51.2%.
The most likely correct score is Guadalajara 1-1 Toluca.
But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.
Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro to unlock today's best bets and complete betting analysis for this matchup.
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