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Toluca vs. Atlas prediction, odds, Liga MX picks [3/14/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Toluca vs Atlas predictions for Liga MX Saturday.
Liga MX action continues on Saturday at 9:00 PM ET as Atlas squares off with Toluca in the playoffs at .
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven Liga MX model projects Toluca as the most likely winner of the Toluca vs. Atlas game.
This article offers further insights into Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Toluca vs. Atlas prediction: Who will win?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's Liga MX matchup between Toluca and Atlas 10,000 times as part of our Liga MX predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently indicates a 68.7% chance of Toluca winning, a 13.1% chance for Atlas, and an 18.2% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 61% chance of going over, according to our model.
Toluca vs. Atlas odds
We have researched the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Toluca | Atlas | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| -275 | +700 | +425 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -180 | +140 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Toluca vs. Atlas picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Atlas | +700 |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 | +140 |
According to our Liga MX best bets, the top play to make on this game is Atlas to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Toluca vs. Atlas: Correct score and BTTS predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 2-0 Toluca win being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| TOL 2-0 ATS | 11% |
| TOL 1-0 ATS | 9.7% |
| TOL 2-1 ATS | 9.7% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 52.6% chance of both sides finding the net and a 47.4% chance that at least one doesn’t.
Toluca vs. Atlas game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's matchup between Toluca and Atlas is scheduled to start at 9:00 PM ET.
- Who: Toluca vs. Atlas
- Date: Saturday, March 14, 2026
- Time: 9:00 PM ET/6:00PM PT
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Toluca has a 68.7% win probability on Saturday, Atlas has a 13.1% win probability, and there is an 18.2% chance that the game will end in a draw.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Toluca vs. Atlas insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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