Atlas vs. Toluca Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Atlas vs. Toluca Liga MX match on March 14, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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LIGA MX
Atlas
1
:
1
Toluca
TolucaTOL
Score Summary
AtlasATL
J. Angulo (90')
Soccer ball icon
V. H. Rios De Alba (90')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Toluca
    0.0%
  • Draw
    100.0%
  • Atlas
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by J. Angulo, assisted by Paulinho
    0-1
  2. 90'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Atlas by V. H. Rios De Alba, assisted by L. Gamboa
    1-1
  3. 88'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atlas: E. Aguirre replaces A. Gonzalez
  4. 85'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: D. Barbosa replaces S. Aceves
  5. 79'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atlas: L. Gamboa replaces A. Rocha
  6. 70'
    Yellow Card
    A. Rocha (Atlas) cautioned
  7. 70'
    Yellow Card
    Luan (Toluca) cautioned
  8. 65'
    Yellow Card
    Paulinho (Toluca) cautioned
  9. 65'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: N. Castro replaces V. Arteaga
  10. 65'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: J. Angulo replaces S. Cordova
  11. 59'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: Helinho replaces P. Perez
  12. 59'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: Paulinho replaces F. Rossi
  13. 56'
    Yellow Card
    G. Aguirre (Atlas) cautioned
  14. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atlas: V. H. Rios De Alba replaces E. Zaldivar
  15. 35'
    Yellow Card
    D. Gonzalez (Atlas) cautioned

Atlas vs. Toluca: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Atlas vs. Toluca
  • Date: Saturday, March 14, 2026
  • Time: 9:00 PM ET

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Atlas +500, Toluca -170, draw +310
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-118/-105)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Atlas: 12.8%
  • Toluca: 68.5%
  • Draw: 18.7%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Liga MX data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Atlas 0-2 Toluca (11.8%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
  • Correct score probabilities

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Who will win Atlas vs. Toluca? Prediction & correct score

Toluca is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 68.5%.

The most likely correct score is Atlas 0-2 Toluca.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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