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Tigres UANL vs. Guadalajara prediction, odds, Liga MX picks [4/11/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara predictions for Liga MX Saturday.
Liga MX action continues on Saturday at 7:00 PM ET as Guadalajara locks horns with Tigres UANL in the playoffs at Estadio Universitario.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced Liga MX model predicts Tigres UANL as the most likely winner of the Tigres UANL vs. Guadalajara game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.
Tigres UANL vs. Guadalajara prediction: Who will win?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's Liga MX game between Tigres UANL and Guadalajara, forming part of our Liga MX predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently suggests a 45.8% chance of Tigres UANL winning, a 28.7% chance for Guadalajara, and a 25.5% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals also has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting, according to our model.
Tigres UANL vs. Guadalajara odds
We have researched the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Tigres UANL | Guadalajara | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +155 | +170 | +250 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -125 | -110 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Tigres UANL vs. Guadalajara picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tigres UANL | +155 |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 | -110 |
According to our Liga MX best bets, the top play to make on this game is Tigres UANL to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Tigres UANL vs. Guadalajara: Correct score and BTTS predictions
The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| TUA 1-1 GUA | 12.1% |
| TUA 1-0 GUA | 10.6% |
| TUA 2-1 GUA | 9.2% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 53.1% chance of both Tigres UANL and Guadalajara finding the net and a 46.9% chance that at least one doesn’t.
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.
Tigres UANL vs. Guadalajara game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's action between Tigres UANL and Guadalajara at Estadio Universitario is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Tigres UANL vs. Guadalajara
- Date: Saturday, April 11, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Estadio Universitario
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Tigres UANL has a 45.8% win probability on Saturday, Guadalajara has a 28.7% win probability, and there is a 25.5% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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