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Pumas UNAM vs. Toluca prediction, odds, Liga MX picks [3/3/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Pumas UNAM vs Toluca predictions for Liga MX Tuesday.
Pumas UNAM and Toluca will meet in the Liga MX playoffs on Tuesday, with kickoff at 10:10 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven Liga MX model predicts Toluca as the most likely winner of the Pumas UNAM vs. Toluca game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Tuesday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Pumas UNAM vs. Toluca prediction: Who will win?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Tuesday's Liga MX matchup between Pumas UNAM and Toluca 10,000 times as part of our Liga MX predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently suggests a 29.7% chance of Pumas UNAM winning, a 44.9% chance for Toluca, and a 25.4% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals also has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting, according to our model.
Pumas UNAM vs. Toluca odds
We have sourced the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Pumas UNAM | Toluca | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +280 | -105 | +260 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -118 | -104 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Pumas UNAM vs. Toluca picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Pumas UNAM | +280 |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 | -104 |
According to our Liga MX best bets, the top play to make on this game is Pumas UNAM to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Pumas UNAM vs. Toluca: Correct score and BTTS predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| PUM 1-1 TOL | 12.1% |
| PUM 0-1 TOL | 10.2% |
| PUM 1-2 TOL | 9.1% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 54.0% chance that both teams scoring, and a 46.0% probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score may differ from our predicted winner.
Pumas UNAM vs. Toluca game-day updates and essential details
Tuesday's game between Pumas UNAM and Toluca is scheduled to begin at 10:10 PM ET.
- Who: Pumas UNAM vs. Toluca
- Date: Tuesday, March 3, 2026
- Time: 10:10 PM ET/7:10PM PT
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Pumas UNAM has a 29.7% win probability on Tuesday, Toluca has a 44.9% win probability, and there is a 25.4% chance that the game will end in a draw.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Pumas UNAM vs. Toluca insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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