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Puebla vs. Necaxa prediction, odds, Liga MX picks [3/13/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Puebla vs Necaxa predictions for Liga MX Friday.
Puebla and Necaxa will meet in the Liga MX playoffs on Friday, starting at 9:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven Liga MX model predicts Puebla as the most likely winner of the Puebla vs. Necaxa game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Puebla vs. Necaxa prediction: Who will win?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Friday's Liga MX matchup between Puebla and Necaxa 10,000 times as part of our Liga MX predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model suggests a 42.4% chance of Puebla winning, a 33.5% chance for Necaxa, and a 24.1% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 58% chance of going over, according to our model.
Puebla vs. Necaxa odds
We have researched the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Puebla | Necaxa | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +110 | +230 | +270 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -132 | +108 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Puebla vs. Necaxa picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Necaxa | +230 |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5 | -132 |
According to our Liga MX best bets, the top play to make on this game is Necaxa to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Puebla vs. Necaxa: Correct score and BTTS predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| PUE 1-1 NXA | 11.1% |
| PUE 2-1 NXA | 8.9% |
| PUE 1-0 NXA | 7.9% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 60.2% chance of both sides finding the net and a 39.8% chance that at least one doesn’t.
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.
Puebla vs. Necaxa game-day updates and essential details
Friday's game between Puebla and Necaxa is scheduled to begin at 9:00 PM ET.
- Who: Puebla vs. Necaxa
- Date: Friday, March 13, 2026
- Time: 9:00 PM ET/6:00PM PT
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Puebla has a 42.4% win probability on Friday, Necaxa has a 33.5% win probability, and there is a 24.1% chance that the game will end in a draw.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Puebla vs. Necaxa insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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