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Necaxa vs. Toluca prediction, odds, Liga MX picks [2/21/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Necaxa vs Toluca predictions for Liga MX Saturday.
Necaxa will take on Toluca in the Liga MX playoffs at Estadio Victoria on Saturday, commencing at 8:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced Liga MX model predicts Toluca as the most likely winner of the Necaxa vs. Toluca game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Necaxa vs. Toluca prediction: Who will win?
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's Liga MX game between Necaxa and Toluca 10,000 times as part of our Liga MX predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model indicates a 23.1% chance of Necaxa winning, a 54.8% chance for Toluca, and a 22.1% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 60% chance of going over, according to our model.
Necaxa vs. Toluca odds
We have sourced the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Necaxa | Toluca | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +430 | -165 | +300 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -120 | -102 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Necaxa vs. Toluca picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Necaxa | +430 |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5 | -120 |
According to our Liga MX best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 2.5 total goals.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Necaxa vs. Toluca: Correct score and BTTS predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| NXA 1-1 TOL | 10.1% |
| NXA 1-2 TOL | 9.8% |
| NXA 0-1 TOL | 8.5% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 59.4% chance of the yes hitting, and a 40.6% probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score may differ from our predicted winner.
Necaxa vs. Toluca game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's action between Necaxa and Toluca at Estadio Victoria is scheduled to commence at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Necaxa vs. Toluca
- Date: Saturday, February 21, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: Estadio Victoria
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Necaxa has a 23.1% win probability on Saturday, Toluca has a 54.8% win probability, and there is a 22.1% chance that the game will end in a draw.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Necaxa vs. Toluca insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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