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Toluca vs. Necaxa Prediction, Picks and Odds
Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Toluca vs. Necaxa Liga MX match on February 21, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro for full access.
FINAL
LIGA MX
FINAL
LIGA MX
3
0
Feb 21, 8:00 PM ET Estadio Victoria
Feb 21, 8:00 PM ET Estadio Victoria
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Pre-Game PredictionsPre-Game
Pro Bets
Score Summary
Paulinho (79')
Paulinho (83')
F. Pereira (90')
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
- Necaxa
- Toluca
Win Probability
Match Timeline
Goal scored for Toluca by F. Pereira, assisted by S. Cordova
3-0
Substitution for Necaxa: K. Gutierrez replaces D. Leyva
Substitution for Necaxa: F. Rossano replaces R. Martinez
Substitution for Toluca: M. Isais replaces J. Gallardo
Substitution for Toluca: Luan replaces S. Simon
Substitution for Toluca: F. Rossi replaces Paulinho
Goal scored for Toluca by Paulinho, assisted by J. Diaz
2-0
Goal scored for Toluca by Paulinho, assisted by J. Diaz
1-0
Substitution for Necaxa: T. Badaloni replaces J. Carranza
Substitution for Toluca: S. Cordova replaces J. Angulo
Substitution for Toluca: J. Diaz replaces P. Perez
Substitution for Necaxa: J. Ruiz replaces A. Pena
Substitution for Necaxa: E. Lara replaces A. E. Almendra
E. Unsain (Necaxa) cautioned
F. Pereira (Toluca) cautioned
A. Pena (Necaxa) cautioned
R. Monreal (Necaxa) cautioned
J. Gallardo (Toluca) cautioned
M. Ruiz (Toluca) cautioned
R. Martinez (Necaxa) cautioned
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Toluca vs. Necaxa: Match prediction & analysis
Match overview
- Teams: Toluca vs. Necaxa
- Date: Saturday, February 21, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: Estadio Victoria
Current betting odds
- Moneyline: Toluca -157, Necaxa +430, draw +300
- Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-120/+108)
Dimers' win & correct score probabilities
- Toluca: 54.8%
- Necaxa: 23.1%
- Draw: 22.1%
These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Liga MX data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.
Most likely correct score: Toluca 1-1 Necaxa (10.1%)
Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.
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- Moneyline probabilities
- Total goals probabilities
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Who will win Toluca vs. Necaxa? Prediction & correct score
Toluca is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 54.8%.
The most likely correct score is Toluca 1-1 Necaxa.
But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.
Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro to unlock today's best bets and complete betting analysis for this matchup.
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