Toluca vs. Necaxa Prediction, Picks and Odds

Toluca vs. Necaxa: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

• Teams: Toluca vs. Necaxa
• Date: Saturday, February 21, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET
• Venue: Estadio Victoria

Current Betting Odds

• Moneyline Odds: Toluca -130, Necaxa +370, Draw +290
• Total (Over/Under): 2.5 (-140/+117)

Dimers' Win Probabilities

• Toluca: 53.4%
• Necaxa: 24.3%
• Draw: 22.2%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Projected Final Score

Our most likely correct score for this Liga MX game is Toluca 1-1 Necaxa, which has a correct score probability of 10%.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations. In some cases, a team can have a higher overall probability of winning, yet the most likely specific outcome (correct score) is a draw.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives Necaxa a win probability of 24.3%, while Toluca has a win probability of 53.4%. The chance of a draw is 22.2%.

Summary

Our Toluca vs. Necaxa predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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For further insights, explore our expert Liga MX predictions and the best Liga MX bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes Liga MX futures, Liga MX odds, and the latest Liga MX news.