...
...
Read Article
- More Betting
Monterrey vs. Toluca prediction, odds, Liga MX picks [1/10/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Monterrey vs Toluca predictions for Liga MX Saturday.
Liga MX action continues on Saturday at 10:00 PM ET as Toluca takes on Monterrey in the playoffs at Estadio BBVA Bancomer.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced Liga MX model projects Monterrey as the most likely winner of the Monterrey vs. Toluca game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Monterrey vs. Toluca prediction: Who will win?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's Liga MX game between Monterrey and Toluca 10,000 times as part of our Liga MX predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model indicates a 51.5% chance of Monterrey winning, a 26.3% chance for Toluca, and a 22.2% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 63% chance of going over, according to our model.
Monterrey vs. Toluca odds
We have sourced the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Monterrey | Toluca | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| -140 | +390 | +320 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -170 | +138 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Monterrey vs. Toluca picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Toluca | +390 |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5 | -170 |
According to our Liga MX best bets, the top play to make on this game is Toluca to win.
Monterrey vs. Toluca: Correct score and BTTS predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| MNT 1-1 TOL | 9.9% |
| MNT 2-1 TOL | 9.5% |
| MNT 1-0 TOL | 7.5% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 62.5% chance that both teams scoring, and a 37.5% probability of at least one team being held goalless.
These predictions are based on each team's average score after 10,000 simulations, meaning the most likely correct score may differ from our predicted winner.
Monterrey vs. Toluca game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's game between Monterrey and Toluca at Estadio BBVA Bancomer is scheduled to commence at 10:00 PM ET.
- Who: Monterrey vs. Toluca
- Date: Saturday, January 10, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
- Venue: Estadio BBVA Bancomer
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Monterrey has a 51.5% win probability on Saturday, Toluca has a 26.3% win probability, and there is a 22.2% chance that the game will end in a draw.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Monterrey vs. Toluca insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Note: Clicking links to our partners may earn us a referral fee. Learn about how we review products and services.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
Advertiser disclosure