Toluca vs. Monterrey Prediction, Picks and Odds

Toluca vs. Monterrey: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

• Teams: Toluca vs. Monterrey
• Date: Saturday, January 10, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET
• Venue: Estadio BBVA Bancomer

Current Betting Odds

• Moneyline Odds: Toluca +130, Monterrey +190, Draw +240
• Total (Over/Under): 2.5 (-138/-102)

Dimers' Win Probabilities

• Toluca: 39.5%
• Monterrey: 36.8%
• Draw: 23.7%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Projected Final Score

Our most likely correct score for this Liga MX game is Toluca 1-1 Monterrey, which has a correct score probability of 11%.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations. In some cases, a team can have a higher overall probability of winning, yet the most likely specific outcome (correct score) is a draw.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives Monterrey a win probability of 36.8%, while Toluca has a win probability of 39.5%. The chance of a draw is 23.7%.

Summary

Our Toluca vs. Monterrey predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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For further insights, explore our expert Liga MX predictions and the best Liga MX bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes Liga MX futures, Liga MX odds, and the latest Liga MX news.