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Monterrey vs. Guadalajara prediction, odds, Liga MX picks [3/21/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Monterrey vs Guadalajara predictions for Liga MX Saturday.
Monterrey will square off with Guadalajara in the Liga MX playoffs at Estadio BBVA on Saturday, starting at 9:05 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven Liga MX model predicts Monterrey as the most likely winner of the Monterrey vs. Guadalajara game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Monterrey vs. Guadalajara prediction: Who will win?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's Liga MX matchup between Monterrey and Guadalajara 10,000 times as part of our Liga MX predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model indicates a 37.8% chance of Monterrey winning, a 37.0% chance for Guadalajara, and a 25.2% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 53% chance of going over, according to our model.
Monterrey vs. Guadalajara odds
We have sourced the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Monterrey | Guadalajara | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +260 | -105 | +270 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -142 | +116 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Monterrey vs. Guadalajara picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Monterrey | +260 |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 | +116 |
According to our Liga MX best bets, the top play to make on this game is Monterrey to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Monterrey vs. Guadalajara: Correct score and BTTS predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| MNT 1-1 GUA | 11.9% |
| MNT 1-0 GUA | 8.5% |
| MNT 0-1 GUA | 8.4% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 57.0% chance of both Monterrey and Guadalajara finding the net and a 43.0% chance that at least one doesn’t.
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score may differ from our predicted winner.
Monterrey vs. Guadalajara game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's action between Monterrey and Guadalajara at Estadio BBVA is scheduled to start at 9:05 PM ET.
- Who: Monterrey vs. Guadalajara
- Date: Saturday, March 21, 2026
- Time: 9:05 PM ET/6:05PM PT
- Venue: Estadio BBVA
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Monterrey has a 37.8% win probability on Saturday, Guadalajara has a 37.0% win probability, and there is a 25.2% chance that the game will end in a draw.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Monterrey vs. Guadalajara insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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