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Read Article Mazatlan vs. Toluca prediction, odds, Liga MX picks [4/22/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Mazatlan vs Toluca predictions for Liga MX Wednesday.
Mazatlan will square off with Toluca in the Liga MX playoffs at Estadio El Encanto on Wednesday, starting at 9:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven Liga MX model predicts Toluca as the most likely winner of the Mazatlan vs. Toluca game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Wednesday's match, including best bets and picks.
Mazatlan vs. Toluca prediction: Who will win?
Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Wednesday's Liga MX matchup between Mazatlan and Toluca, forming part of our Liga MX predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model indicates a 16.4% chance of Mazatlan winning, a 63.0% chance for Toluca, and a 20.6% chance of a draw.
Mazatlan vs. Toluca odds
We have sourced the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Market | Mazatlan | Toluca | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +390 | -160 | +340 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mazatlan vs. Toluca picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Toluca | -160 |
According to our Liga MX best bets, the top play to make on this game is Toluca to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mazatlan vs. Toluca: Correct score and BTTS predictions
The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 2-0 Toluca win being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| MZA 0-2 TOL | 10.7% |
| MZA 0-1 TOL | 10.5% |
| MZA 1-2 TOL | 9.9% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 52.6% chance of both sides finding the net and a 47.4% chance that at least one doesn’t.
Mazatlan vs. Toluca game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's action between Mazatlan and Toluca at Estadio El Encanto is scheduled to start at 9:00 PM ET.
- Who: Mazatlan vs. Toluca
- Date: Wednesday, April 22, 2026
- Time: 9:00 PM ET/6:00PM PT
- Venue: Estadio El Encanto
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Mazatlan has a 16.4% win probability on Wednesday, Toluca has a 63.0% win probability, and there is a 20.6% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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