Toluca vs. Mazatlan Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Toluca vs. Mazatlan Liga MX match on April 22, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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LIGA MX
Toluca
3
4
Estadio El Encanto
Mazatlan
Estadio El Encanto
MazatlanMAZ
Score Summary
TolucaTOL
B. Rubio (49')
Soccer ball icon
Y. Barcenas (pen.) (69')
Soccer ball icon
G. Lopez (75')
Soccer ball icon
D. Hernandez (88')
Soccer ball icon
E. del Villar (45')
Soccer ball icon
A. Briseno (54')
Soccer ball icon
M. Ruiz (60')
Red Card icon
N. Castro (87')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Mazatlan
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Toluca
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Yellow Card
    G. Lopez (Mazatlan FC) cautioned
  2. 88'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Mazatlan FC by D. Hernandez, assisted by Fabio Gomes
    3-4
  3. 87'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Mazatlan FC: B. Arce replaces B. Rubio
  4. 87'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by N. Castro, assisted by J. Angulo
    3-3
  5. 86'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Mazatlan FC: D. Hernandez replaces J. Ovalle
  6. 81'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: N. Castro replaces M. Isais
  7. 81'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: O. Virgen replaces A. Vega
  8. 75'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Mazatlan FC by G. Lopez, assisted by Dudu
    2-3
  9. 72'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Mazatlan FC: M. Lainez replaces M. Zaleta
  10. 72'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Mazatlan FC: Fabio Gomes replaces S. Godinez
  11. 72'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Mazatlan FC: G. Lopez replaces J. Diaz
  12. 69'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Mazatlan FC by Y. Barcenas (pen.)
    2-2
  13. 60'
    Red Card
    M. Ruiz (Toluca) sent off with a straight red card
  14. 56'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: Bruno Mendez replaces F. Rossi
  15. 54'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by A. Briseno, assisted by A. Vega
    2-1
  16. 49'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Mazatlan FC by B. Rubio, assisted by F. Almada
    1-1
  17. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: J. Angulo replaces J. Diaz
  18. 45'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by E. del Villar, assisted by F. Arce
    1-0
  19. 26'
    Yellow Card
    E. del Villar (Toluca) cautioned
  20. 23'
    Yellow Card
    J. Diaz (Mazatlan FC) cautioned
  21. 15'
    Yellow Card
    L. Merolla (Mazatlan FC) cautioned
  22. 12'
    Yellow Card
    A. Vega (Toluca) cautioned

Toluca vs. Mazatlan: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Toluca vs. Mazatlan
  • Date: Wednesday, April 22, 2026
  • Time: 9:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Estadio El Encanto

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Toluca -160, Mazatlan +430, draw +340
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-200/+150)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Toluca: 63.0%
  • Mazatlan: 16.4%
  • Draw: 20.6%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Liga MX data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Toluca 2-0 Mazatlan (10.7%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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Who will win Toluca vs. Mazatlan? Prediction & correct score

Toluca is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 63.0%.

The most likely correct score is Toluca 2-0 Mazatlan.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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