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Toluca vs. Mazatlan Prediction, Picks and Odds
Dimers' prediction and analysis for Toluca vs. Mazatlan in the World Cup on April 22, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets.
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FINAL
LIGA MX
FINAL
LIGA MX
3
4
Apr 23, 1AM Estadio El Encanto
Apr 23, 1AM Estadio El Encanto
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Pre-Game PredictionsPre-Game
Bets
Score Summary
B. Rubio (49')
Y. Barcenas (pen.) (69')
G. Lopez (75')
D. Hernandez (88')
E. del Villar (45')
A. Briseno (54')
M. Ruiz (60')
N. Castro (87')
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Win %
100.0%
Draw
0.0%
0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
G. Lopez (Mazatlan FC) cautioned
Goal scored for Mazatlan FC by D. Hernandez, assisted by Fabio Gomes
3-4
Substitution for Mazatlan FC: B. Arce replaces B. Rubio
Goal scored for Toluca by N. Castro, assisted by J. Angulo
3-3
Substitution for Mazatlan FC: D. Hernandez replaces J. Ovalle
Substitution for Toluca: N. Castro replaces M. Isais
Substitution for Toluca: O. Virgen replaces A. Vega
Goal scored for Mazatlan FC by G. Lopez, assisted by Dudu
2-3
Substitution for Mazatlan FC: M. Lainez replaces M. Zaleta
Substitution for Mazatlan FC: Fabio Gomes replaces S. Godinez
Substitution for Mazatlan FC: G. Lopez replaces J. Diaz
Goal scored for Mazatlan FC by Y. Barcenas (pen.)
2-2
M. Ruiz (Toluca) sent off with a straight red card
Substitution for Toluca: Bruno Mendez replaces F. Rossi
Goal scored for Toluca by A. Briseno, assisted by A. Vega
2-1
Goal scored for Mazatlan FC by B. Rubio, assisted by F. Almada
1-1
Substitution for Toluca: J. Angulo replaces J. Diaz
Goal scored for Toluca by E. del Villar, assisted by F. Arce
1-0
E. del Villar (Toluca) cautioned
J. Diaz (Mazatlan FC) cautioned
L. Merolla (Mazatlan FC) cautioned
A. Vega (Toluca) cautioned
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Toluca vs. Mazatlan: World Cup prediction & analysis
Dimers' Toluca vs. Mazatlan prediction is powered by a data-driven model built specifically for World Cup matches. The model projects how many goals each team is expected to score, then converts those projections into probabilities and picks across major betting markets.
Our coverage includes predictions, bets and odds for moneyline, over/under, double chance, both teams to score (BTTS), win to nil, and correct score.
The model factors in team attacking and defensive performance, recent form, opponent strength, tournament history, match location and expected player involvement to deliver consistent insights across every World Cup match.
Match overview
- Teams: Toluca vs. Mazatlan
- Date: Wednesday, April 22, 2026
- Time: 9:00 PM ET
- Venue: Estadio El Encanto
- Tournament: FIFA World Cup
Current betting odds
- Moneyline: Toluca -160, Mazatlan +430, draw +340
- Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-200/+150)
Dimers' win probabilities
- Toluca: 63.0%
- Mazatlan: 16.4%
- Draw: 20.6%
These probabilities are generated using Dimers' international soccer ratings system, designed to help bettors navigate World Cup predictions with greater confidence and clarity.
Correct score
The most likely correct score for this match is Toluca 2-0 Mazatlan.
Correct score projections reflect expected scoring distributions. In some cases, a team can carry a higher overall win probability while the most likely specific outcome is a narrow result or a draw.
Our prediction
Toluca is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 63.0%.
For full access to Dimers' World Cup best bets and to find out who will win the World Cup, unlock the complete experience with Dimers Pro.
Summary
Dimers' Toluca vs. Mazatlan prediction aims to turn World Cup chaos into clarity. Our coverage is grounded in repeatable logic, data-driven analysis, and consistent tournament-wide modeling—not headlines or hunches.
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