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Cruz Azul vs. Guadalajara prediction, odds, Liga MX picks [2/21/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Cruz Azul vs Guadalajara predictions for Liga MX Saturday.
Cruz Azul will face Guadalajara in the Liga MX playoffs on Saturday, beginning at 10:05 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced Liga MX model projects Cruz Azul as the most likely winner of the Cruz Azul vs. Guadalajara game.
This article offers further insights into Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Cruz Azul vs. Guadalajara prediction: Who will win?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's Liga MX matchup between Cruz Azul and Guadalajara 10,000 times as part of our Liga MX predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model indicates a 48.0% chance of Cruz Azul winning, a 26.3% chance for Guadalajara, and a 25.7% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 53% chance of staying under, according to our model.
Cruz Azul vs. Guadalajara odds
We have sourced the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Cruz Azul | Guadalajara | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +135 | +200 | +240 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -108 | -118 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Cruz Azul vs. Guadalajara picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cruz Azul | +135 |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 | -118 |
According to our Liga MX best bets, the top play to make on this game is Cruz Azul to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Cruz Azul vs. Guadalajara: Correct score and BTTS predictions
The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| CAZ 1-1 GUA | 12.2% |
| CAZ 1-0 GUA | 11.6% |
| CAZ 2-1 GUA | 9.3% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 50.8% chance of the yes hitting, and a 49.2% probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score may differ from our predicted winner.
Cruz Azul vs. Guadalajara game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's game between Cruz Azul and Guadalajara is scheduled to start at 10:05 PM ET.
- Who: Cruz Azul vs. Guadalajara
- Date: Saturday, February 21, 2026
- Time: 10:05 PM ET/7:05PM PT
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Cruz Azul has a 48.0% win probability on Saturday, Guadalajara has a 26.3% win probability, and there is a 25.7% chance that the game will end in a draw.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Cruz Azul vs. Guadalajara insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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