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Atlas vs. Guadalajara prediction, odds, Liga MX picks [3/7/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Atlas vs Guadalajara predictions for Liga MX Saturday.
Atlas and Guadalajara will lock horns in the Liga MX playoffs at Estadio Jalisco on Saturday, starting at 8:05 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven Liga MX model projects Guadalajara as the most likely winner of the Atlas vs. Guadalajara game.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Atlas vs. Guadalajara prediction: Who will win?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's Liga MX matchup between Atlas and Guadalajara 10,000 times as part of our Liga MX predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model indicates a 25.1% chance of Atlas winning, a 48.8% chance for Guadalajara, and a 26.0% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 55% chance of staying under, according to our model.
Atlas vs. Guadalajara odds
We have researched the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Atlas | Guadalajara | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +430 | -150 | +290 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -104 | -118 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Atlas vs. Guadalajara picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Atlas | +430 |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 | -118 |
According to our Liga MX best bets, the top play to make on this game is Atlas to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Atlas vs. Guadalajara: Correct score and BTTS predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-0 Guadalajara win being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| ATS 0-1 GUA | 12.4% |
| ATS 1-1 GUA | 12.3% |
| ATS 0-2 GUA | 9.3% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 48.9% chance of both sides finding the net and a 51.1% chance that at least one doesn’t.
Atlas vs. Guadalajara game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's action between Atlas and Guadalajara at Estadio Jalisco is scheduled to begin at 8:05 PM ET.
- Who: Atlas vs. Guadalajara
- Date: Saturday, March 7, 2026
- Time: 8:05 PM ET/5:05PM PT
- Venue: Estadio Jalisco
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Atlas has a 25.1% win probability on Saturday, Guadalajara has a 48.8% win probability, and there is a 26.0% chance that the game will end in a draw.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Atlas vs. Guadalajara insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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