Prediction markets used to sit quietly off in a forecasting corner of the internet. Now there's a Washington ethics fight wrapped around them and the change happened quicker than most of us tracking these markets had pencilled in.
S.Res. 708 went through the Senate by unanimous consent on 30 April and was the line in the sand. Senators, officers and employees can no longer trade event contracts on real-world events like government actions or elections. The Padilla amendment stretched it further by pushing the House, executive branch and judiciary toward matching restrictions.
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The PREDICT Act's Recent Momentum
PREDICT Act was filed on 25 March 2026, and Rep. Budzinski and Rep. Smith got bipartisan support on the bill from day one.
What the Bill Would Do
Members of Congress fall inside the scope. So do spouses, dependent children, the president, vice president, political appointees and other senior officials. Any of them found trading on
politics predictions
pegged to political events, policy decisions or government actions would be blocked. As a penalty, they’re looking at a 10% civil fine of the prohibited transaction value on top of full disgorgement of any profits direct to the U.S. Treasury.
An anti-corruption message is awkward to push back against in public and that's a big part of why both parties came in behind the bill. Budzinski pointed at newly funded Polymarket wallets trading just before U.S. airstrikes on Iran (around $1.2 million in profits).
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Factors That Could Slow or Block the Bill
House Speaker Mike Johnson told Bloomberg Government he supports a ban in principle but said he needs consensus in the larger chamber first.
The Consensus Problem
The House is harder to align than the Senate on anything, and multiple competing prediction market bills are circulating in Congress right now. If lawmakers try to merge different approaches, that alone could delay a clean vote on the PREDICT Act through the rest of the session.
Site-Level Changes Already Underway
Kalshi's flagged north of 400 suspicious trades since 2026 began, more than double its full 2025 count, and the site's annualised volume tripled in six months to $178 billion. April notional volume for Polymarket came in around $10.3 billion. CFTC is pushing through broader prediction market regulation at the same time., The agency already holds authority to block event contracts tied to unlawful activity, terrorism, and other areas judged against the public interest.
How to Trade PREDICT Act Prices
Search any market along the lines of 'PREDICT Act passes House in 2026', or one of the broader congressional bill markets out there on
prediction market apps. Read the precise settlement wording before placing a trade because the phrasing of the question can shift a position from yes to no.
What the Senate Vote Means for Prediction Market Regulation
The PREDICT Act is acting as a test for how far prediction market regulation pushes in 2026. The Senate's drawn its line and the House now has to decide if lawmakers and senior officials face the same restrictions before public trust loses even more ground. Click the banners on this page to pull up the live prices on the best prediction market sites.
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