A Google software engineer is currently facing federal charges for insider trading after allegedly accessing Google’s internal database at work to accurately predict markets on Polymarket. Between October and December 2025, the engineer reportedly won $1.2 million in profits.
By accessing the information on Google’s internal database, he had an unfair advantage against other traders. With Polymarket and other prediction market sites recently undergoing scrutiny for potential insider trading, this marks one of the first major insider trading prosecutions and is expected to set the tone for how prediction market sites can monitor against this type of behavior.
Federal Charges Have Been Filed in New York
Michele Spagnuolo, a Google software engineer, has been charged with commodities fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering after allegedly using confidential internal data that is accessible to all Google employees. By accessing this confidential and commercially valuable information, it’s reported that Spagnuolo won $1.2 million in profits on Polymarket, under his username AlphaRaccoon.
According to the complaint filed in New York, Spagnuolo, an Italian citizen living in Switzerland, has been charged with trading on Polymarket between October and December 2025. During this time, he reportedly predicted Google’s most-searched person in 2025 by viewing data before it was publicly available. He has since been released on a $2.25 million bond.
How Spagnuolo Turned a Profit on Polymarket
Michele Spagnuolo traded event contracts that predicted D4vd, a singer, would be Google’s most-searched person in 2025. At the time, D4vd had almost 0% chance on Polymarket, which meant that it was the ideal time to buy a Yes contract. With an exceptionally low probability, the Yes contract would have been priced very low. This meant that the settlements of each contract would mostly be made up of profit.
With the contracts having low odds, Spagnuolo would have spotted an opportunity to grab a profit on
prediction market apps. Unlike other traders, he knew the outcome of the market before the public, so he was able to confidently buy the event contracts despite the low probability.
Conclusion: A Potential Landlord Case for Polymarket
This case involving Michele Spagnuolo is being closely watched by traders, regulators, and legal experts alike, as it comes not too long after prediction market sites came under scrutiny for insider trading. This case raises questions about how insider trading is monitored on prediction market sites and how these rules will be legally enforced. With prediction market sites posing a potential risk for insider trading, prosecutors appear to be focusing on using this case to send a clear message about how these types of cases will be handled in the future. If the case is successful, it could be a landmark for the industry and pose a chance of helping to reshape regulations and insider trading.
With the world watching this case, Polymarket is expected to continue offering fair and transparent markets while working hard to maintain the rules of the site. It has often felt that prediction market sites can’t catch a break, following recent debates. However, this case is an opportunity for Polymarket to show that going against the site’s rules may lead to federal charges. You can tap de banners here to check Polymarket for yourself.
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