Are Prediction Markets Legal in Hawaii?
This is an intricate question and requires a little breaking down to answer in full. First off, let’s clarify what we mean by a prediction market. These sites have become increasingly popular recently and that’s all down to the distinctive system in place.
How Do Prediction Markets Work?
Prediction markets, such as Kalshi, operate according to an exchange model. Users buy or sell Yes or No event contracts with a value between $0.01 and $0.99. Every trade has a binary setup and a clearly designated end date and verification source, for example:
| Trade |
Implied probability |
‘Yes’ price |
‘No’ price |
| Will the Blue Jays win the World Series? |
62% |
$0.62 |
$0.37 |
The implied probability indicates how likely the event is to happen, according to market sentiment. This can vary significantly, especially on volatile markets with high levels of trader engagement, such as Best Picture Oscar Winner.
Once the event has passed, all correct contracts are settled at a price of $1 each while incorrect contracts are settled at $0. So, if you purchased ten ‘Yes’ trades on the Blue Jays above, and they win, each contract would be settled at $1, giving you a profit of $1-$0.62 = $0.38 x 10 = $3.80.
Fees and Finance at Prediction Markets
To administer trades, prediction exchanges charge a small fee when members purchase contracts. This means the exchange has no interest in the outcome, as they’ll receive a fee either way.
As a result of this model, prediction exchanges are considered a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and fall under the remit of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), a federal body connected to the government. This means that prediction exchanges are legal in all 50 states. However, some states have imposed their own bans and Hawaii residents may have found themselves restricted from signing up or accessing
prediction markets.
What’s the Situation in 2026? Lawmakers Introduce Legislation to Ban Prediction Markets in Hawaii
Earlier in the year, Hawaii lawmakers introduced new legislation which would prohibit prediction markets from operating in the state but the Bill did not pass. At the same time, the CFTC has also released a document which aims to formally regulate prediction markets. This was published in early June 2026 and has a 45-day window during which comments and possible amendments can be suggested.
In addition, lawmakers have been debating whether preemptive federal action will apply. If this is the case, then prediction markets will be accessible in all states regardless of a state’s individual legislation. This would mean Hawaii residents would be able to register at a prediction exchange provided they’re over the age of 18. This would be confirmed through the KYC process in place at top sites which requires players to submit copies of their ID.
Could the Status of Prediction Markets Change in the Future?
It’s possible that access to prediction markets could differ if the US administration changes. We’ll keep you updated with the latest developments in our guides and advise you of any restrictions. Bookmark our site to make sure you can go straight to the full details.
Pros and Cons of Prediction Markets
At the moment, prediction exchanges are not very active in the Hawaii market but this could change if new CFTC guidelines are confirmed. This would provide Hawaii residents with a choice of prediction exchanges and event contracts covering topics as diverse as politics, sports, economics and entertainment.
Pros and Cons
- CFTC regulation compliant
- Simple binary contracts
- Wide choice of categories
- Popular sports choices
- Currently limited by state guidance
Finding the Top Prediction Market Apps in Hawaii - Check Out Our Top Three
As they’re accessible at a federal level, prediction exchanges such as Kalshi are open to Hawaii residents. However, the CFTC’s recent publication should confirm and support this, making prediction exchanges legal in all 50 states regardless of individual state law. To stand Hawaii residents in good stead, we’ve assembled three prediction exchanges which will be ideal for an emerging Hawaii base:
Kalshi - Simple Setup with Huge Choice
Kalshi: Pros & Cons
- Fully CFTC-regulated exchange
- Diverse markets including sports, politics, and economics
- Supports PayPal, Venmo, and Crypto deposits
- Highly rated mobile app for iOS and Android
- Trading fees apply to both makers and takers
- Bank withdrawals can take several business days
Kalshi is a superb option among prediction exchanges and possibly the best for those completely new to the system. This is especially thanks to the easy to navigate website, and tools that are beginner friendly including graphics of market movements and a lively community chat feature. These features are made even better by a solid backroom setup with a useful Help Center, effective support and low fees.
The range of markets at Kalshi is stupendous and, along with financial events, there’s a massive selection of cultural, entertainment, political and economic contracts. It ranks as one of the very best of all
sports prediction market apps
and offers members a chance to trade on sport from inside and outside of the States, from football to baseball, soccer and tennis.
OG - Streamlined Trades and Clear Setup
OG: Pros and Cons
- Secure and regulated by the CFTC
- No user limiting on trades
- Wide range of market categories
- Great National Championship offer
- Sports contracts are restricted in some states
OG is a top choice of prediction market. It has a clear and consistent display and simple setup which allows members to make simple Yes/No trades across categories as diverse as sports, politics and entertainment, plus popular crypto markets. Sports are an especially broad category and cover domestic and international events across football, tennis, baseball, basketball and a growing list of options. All of this can be split into a range of game specific or tournament outcomes.
Low fees and lots of features make OG a great option for casual and experienced traders. You can use the ‘Trending’ and ‘Live’ sections to see the trades gathering the most attention from other members, great if you don’t have much time to browse and make trades after a sporting event has started. Plus, you can access everything from the OG iOS or Android apps.
Prediction Trading is facilitated through Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (CDNA). Foris DAX Inc. and Foris Inc. (d/b/a OG) provide access to CDNA, a platform regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), allowing users to trade derivatives in accordance with CDNA’s rules and regulations.
Crypto.com: Pros & Cons
- Competition-based promotions
- iOS & Android apps
- Minimalist website design
- Beginner-friendly
As you’d expect, the largest portion of Crypto.com’s events are based around crypto and support trades on a vast choice of contracts. The site also has a lot of different sports contracts and options across politics, finance and, a newly added category, entertainment.
Crypto.com has a pared back look and feel that allows you to go straight to the good stuff — the trading floor. From there, you can make a trade in a few clicks and monitor as results unfurl. Just be aware that, in order to access trades, you’ll need to register for a Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (CDNA) account.
Crypto.com can appear complex if you’re new to prediction markets but it has a number of useful tools and guides to help break things down. Customer support is also available around the clock to help you out with anything specific.
Sponsored by Crypto.com – Not investment advice. Trading prediction markets and crypto involves risk, including potential loss of your stake. Consider your risk tolerance before participating. Crypto.com connects U.S. users to CDNA (regulated by CFTC) for derivatives trading. CDNA membership required. Trading may not be suitable for all—you could lose your entire investment plus fees. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. This is not a solicitation or recommendation to trade.
How to Join Prediction Markets in Hawaii
If the market expands and prediction hubs become available in the Aloha State, the process of signing up is straightforward and mirrored at all sites:
-
Once you’ve visited the brand homepage, register from there or download the appropriate app for your system.
-
Depending on the site, it’s possible to register using an email address or by linking another account, such as Google.
-
Fill in any requested personal details and verify.
A Word on KYC Verification
In order to join a prediction exchange, Hawaii residents have to prove that they’re over 18. This process is in place to make sure only adults are accessing prediction exchanges. To meet this requirement, Hawaii residents will be asked to provide their full name, date of birth and the last four digits of their Social Security number (SSN). You might also be asked to upload a copy of an ID document and a selfie. Once your account is live, we’d recommend turning on 2FA and adding a biometric login for extra security too.
Do You Have to Pay Taxes on Profits from Prediction Markets?
Yes, any profits you make must be declared on your tax return in the same way as capital gains. These would be subject to the standard tax rate in Hawaii.
Summary - Will Prediction Markets Be Open in Hawaii in the Future?
As we write this, Hawaii residents are not able to access prediction markets. But, there are a number of indications that this could change in the future, meaning that prediction exchanges become fully available across all states to those aged 18 and over.
There are many great options of prediction exchanges for residents in Hawaii, including Kalshi, Crypto.com and OG. All have something slightly different to offer but make a great base for trading on sports, politics, crypto and other real life events. We’d suggest having a read through our individual reviews of all of these sites, and coming back soon for the latest details and updates on prediction markets.
Meet Our Recommended Sport Prediction Market Apps
1.
2.
Open Polymarket
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading involves high risk and may result in loss of your entire investment. See polymarket.us/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange and clearing organization.
3.
4.
Trade $10, Get $10 Welcome Offer
Open OG
18+ If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER Prediction is an event contract that is a derivatives product offered by Crypto.com: Buy, Sell & Trade Crypto with a Trusted App | Derivatives North America (CDNA), a CFTC-regulated exchange through OG technology. Trading on CDNA involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. By trading you risk losing your cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on CDNA is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Terms apply. Trading involves risk of loss. Bonus credits cannot be withdrawn immediately.
5.
Are Prediction Markets Legal in Hawaii FAQs
👍 Are Prediction Markets Legal in Hawaii and Who Can Join?
Currently, residents of Hawaii face restrictions in accessing prediction markets but this looks to be changing very soon. New rules outlined by the CFTC seem poised to confirm and expand the prediction exchange model, which would make them accessible in all states regardless of individual state law. To register, users need to be at least 18.
🏀 What Events Are Available at Prediction Market Sites in Hawaii?
Currently, Hawaii residents are not permitted to access prediction markets. This could change in the future, however, meaning the door opens to exciting Hawaii sports events and other markets across politics, economics, culture and more.
🇺🇸 Can US Residents Outside of the State Make Trades on Hawaii Events?
Yes, if you live in an eligible state, it’s possible to make a trade on a Hawaii based event. You’ll need to complete KYC verification to sign up but, once that’s done, you can access markets from all around the globe.
For guidance on responsible trading and risk awareness, the following free official resources are available:
To make sure you get accurate and helpful information, this guide has been edited by
Jason Bevilacqua
as part of our fact-checking process.
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