Temperature Futures & Predictions 2026: Trade Temperature Contracts

What Are Temperature Predictions?

Put simply, these allow you to predict what you think the temperature might reach on a given day in a given location. Other examples include predicting the highest temperatures or whether a record might be broken. Prediction market websites provide other options as well, including trading on climate change and other weather-related probabilities. Many people look at probabilities based on the temperature because it is an easy prospect to understand, even for those with little weather-related knowledge.

How to Trade on the Temperature Using Prediction Markets

Prediction markets aren’t the same as betting on an event. Instead, you’re predicting what you think might happen. In this case, you can predict whether the temperature for a specific location, such as New York City, for example, will rise by a certain amount on a given day. A prediction market site might state that the temperature in NYC today will be between 39-40 degrees. If you agree with this, you would buy Yes shares. If you disagree, you would buy No shares. This works for trading on natural disasters, too.

For this example, we might see 15% of people saying Yes and 85% of people saying no. This gives the price per share at 15 cents or 85 cents. In either case, if your choice is correct, you will receive $1 per share. To give you a better idea of some prediction markets based on temperatures, we’ve compiled some examples in the below table.

Our Top Recommended Sites for Trading on the Temperature

While trading on the weather encompasses many different weather events, you can focus only on temperature fluctuations if you wish. We’ve looked at four key prediction market websites you can consider if you’d like to trade on this possibility (among others).

Kalshi: Easy to Access Temperature Predictions

Highlights

• Prediction markets for the weather and other climate-related outcomes
• US and global climate prediction markets
• Particularly good for location-based climate predictions

Check our banners to find current information about a potential welcome bonus for Kalshi. They provide a Market Bug Bounty opportunity too, offering rewards for any bugs you might unearth. We were impressed with how easy it was to find prediction markets covering the temperature. Simply access the climate area in the menu and then choose daily temperature from the options provided. We found markets covering the highest daily temperature in a range of US cities, including LA, Denver, and New York. They tend to provide a range of options, each covering a small temperature window, with yes or no options for each.

Crypto.com: CRO Reward Potential for Newcomers

Highlights

• Trade on climate-related outcomes as markets expand
• Simple yes/no contracts make complex topics easy to enter
• Market-driven pricing reflects global environmental trends

Crypto.com allows users to trade event contracts by funding accounts with cryptocurrency via conversion to fiat cash. They offer time-bound promotional campaigns featuring leaderboards that reward users with prizes such as CRO or Bitcoin based on cumulative trading volume or open orders. They’re still expanding their event contract range, focusing closely on sports, politics, and financial events just now. While they don’t currently have many climate or weather tracking categories, they do offer a handful of options, such as whether 2026 will rank as the hottest year on record.

Sponsored by Crypto.com – Not investment advice. Trading prediction markets and crypto involves risk, including potential loss of your stake. Consider your risk tolerance before participating. Crypto.com connects U.S. users to CDNA (regulated by CFTC) for derivatives trading. CDNA membership required. Trading may not be suitable for all—you could lose your entire investment plus fees. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. This is not a solicitation or recommendation to trade. 

Robinhood: Temperature Possibilities in Multiple Cities

Highlights

• Track trends in the climate futures market
• Invest in stocks with environmental impact potential
• Profit by leveraging global climate data insights

You’ll need to download the app to browse Robinhood’s prediction markets, although you can expect a sensible format via a quick download from the App Store or Google Play. We found various results that suggested a range of options for predicting the temperature. For example, you can predict the daily temperature high in New York City. We also noted a list of similar events to browse at the bottom of a page covering temperature ranges. This makes it easier to explore associated prediction markets and possibilities. We also appreciated clear info on when the event contract would resolve and where they took their information from.

Polymarket: Quick Search Finds Temperature Markets

Highlights

• Trade on climate-related outcomes
• Easy yes/no contracts simplify even the most complex topics
• Market-based pricing reflect global environmental trends

During our Polymarket review, we found relevant prediction markets covering the temperatures in a range of locations by using the search bar at the top of their website. You will usually see highest temperatures in these cases, although we also noted markets covering the potential temperature increase on a specific day. They display a graph showing how the prediction market has altered as time has progressed, so you can see the latest trends at a glance, too.

Pros and Cons of Trading on the Temperature

You might be more familiar with trading on the economy or sports, but the temperature is becoming a fascinating market to watch, too. Check our pros and cons for testing these on prediction market sites.

Pros and Cons

• Many prediction markets offer this possibility
• Most markets last a day or a month
• Some focus on worldwide temperature records
• Kalshi and Polymarket are top picks to try

• Many predictions use fine margins of a degree or two

What Do You Make of Trading on the Temperature?

Prediction markets have become more popular across the US recently. Sites like Kalshi and Polymarket provide a more diverse mix of prediction markets than some competitors, although all the sites we have reviewed here are worth looking at more closely. You can easily find a range of possibilities for predicting what the temperature might be in a city near you or in general, based on current trends and what’s happening with the weather. You can visit any of the above prediction markets by using our links, so you can find out more about the current probabilities and possibilities when you wish to trade event contracts based on the temperature.

Our Unbeatable Climate Prediction Sites

Trading on the Temperature FAQs

Trade Responsibly

Prediction markets involve financial risk, and outcomes are never guaranteed. In light of this, trading should always be controlled and enjoyable. Keep your activity in check by following responsible trading practices such as:

Set a Budget:

Only trade money you can afford to lose and stop when your budget is reached.

Don't Chase Losses:

Avoid increasing trade size or frequency to recover losses.

Trade with a Clear Head:

Don't trade when stressed, tired, emotional, or under the influence.

Set Time Limits:

Take breaks and avoid letting trading interfere with daily life.

Know Your Stuff:

Learn how contracts, pricing, fees, and settlement work before trading.

Use Platform Controls:

Use spending limits, account history, or self-exclusion tools where available.

For guidance on responsible trading and risk awareness, the following free official resources are available:

SEC OIEA

FINRA

To make sure you get accurate and helpful information, this guide has been edited by Mac Douglass as part of our fact-checking process.