Can You Make Natural Disaster Predictions?
Yes. Many
prediction market websites
provide you with a chance to review the probabilities of certain natural disasters occurring. Many sites focus on events that could potentially occur in the US, too. Think of it as an alternative to
trading on the weather, since some natural disasters do involve extreme weather conditions, such as hurricanes or storms. We’ll explain more about how this works before recommending which sites to try.
Is This the Same As Betting on Natural Disasters?
No, not at all, as prediction markets don't involve betting. The main similarity here is that your prediction must be right to be able to receive a payout. With prediction markets, you’ll choose what you think will be the correct answer to a question - in this case, a question based on a natural disaster. This works with
trading on the temperature
and a variety of other possibilities, too. If you get the right answer, you receive a payout. Here are a few basic differences between the two options.
| Betting |
Prediction Markets |
| Uses odds set by the provider |
Based on the opinions of participants |
| You place a bet with a chosen sportsbook |
You use a prediction market platform, where some users trade on yes and some trade on no |
| Odds can vary hugely |
Probabilities based on chance out of 100% |
| Make a bet using the given odds for an event |
Buy shares in the event you think will happen, i.e. a 60% probability means each share costs $0.60 |
| If you’re successful, you receive a payout based on your bet multiplied by the odds |
If you’re successful, you receive $1 for each share you purchased |
Recommended Sites for Trading on Natural Disasters
You’ll find several leading prediction market websites to consider if you want to trade on these natural occurrences. Many offer other possibilities as well, including
political trading
and sports prediction markets. We’ve gathered details of four of the best options to consider here.
Kalshi: Offering Plenty of Diverse Prediction Markets
Highlights
- Prediction markets for the weather and other climate-related outcomes
- US and global climate prediction markets
- Particularly good for location-based climate predictions
During
our Kalshi review, we found many popular prediction markets, including sports, culture, and politics, plus a specific climate section that includes an option to view only options for trading on natural disasters. They also provide markets that are coming soon, which you can keep track of and add to your watchlist if desired. You'll often see options for yes-no outcomes on different quantities of tornadoes or other disasters in certain areas, too.
Highlights
- Trade on climate-related outcomes as markets expand
- Simple yes/no contracts make complex topics easy to enter
- Market-driven pricing reflects global environmental trends
When you join their site, you’ll have the opportunity to earn CRO rewards. CRO is a cryptocurrency using Cronos chains. If you’re eligible, you must trade $100 or $500 (this is area dependent) within 30 days of signup to qualify for rewards. You can join by downloading their app and signing up from there. They’ve got prediction markets based on all manner of events, with more added all the time. We also liked the app design, which makes participation smooth and straightforward.
Sponsored by Crypto.com – Not investment advice. Trading prediction markets and crypto involves risk, including potential loss of your stake. Consider your risk tolerance before participating. Crypto.com connects U.S. users to CDNA (regulated by CFTC) for derivatives trading. CDNA membership required. Trading may not be suitable for all—you could lose your entire investment plus fees. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. This is not a solicitation or recommendation to trade.
Robinhood: App-Based Prediction Markets
Highlights
- Track trends in the climate futures market
- Invest in stocks with environmental impact potential
- Profit by leveraging global climate data insights
If you want the convenience of delving into prediction markets without needing a computer to do so, Robinhood could be a good fit. You’ll need to download their iOS or Android app to get started. Robinhood offers a range of financial services and products, making their prediction markets coverage a good option if you already hold an account with them. Their markets cover everything from sports to economics to cultural events. New users signing up can also claim a welcome reward stock worth up to $200 to kickstart their account.
Polymarket: Offers a Liquidity Rewards Program
Highlights
- Trade on climate-related outcomes
- Easy yes/no contracts simplify even the most complex topics
- Market-based pricing reflect global environmental trends
We spotted a welcome offer at Polymarket, where new users can claim a sign-up trading bonus. You can also participate in their Liquidity Rewards Program if you place competitive limit orders near the market's midpoint. They feature specific categories covering Natural Disasters and Climate & Science topics, alongside a fast search facility that makes it easy to find exactly what you want.
Searching for natural disasters will bring up all current options. We also found that associated prediction markets pop up further down the page when reviewing a specific possibility, making it easier to discover alternatives.
Pros and Cons of Trading on Natural Disasters
If this type of trading appeals to you, you may wish to consider
trading on the climate
as well, since the two subjects can be intertwined, with many prediction market websites offering opportunities for both. We’ve noted some main pros and cons of focusing on natural disasters here, which you may like to keep in mind if you’re going to try trading on potential outcomes.
Pros and Cons
- Prediction markets available all year
- They’re easy to understand
- Usually focus on one geographical area
- Shares pay at $1 each if you choose correctly
- Some sites offer limited prediction markets on this topic
Will a Certain Natural Disaster Occur or Not?
That’s the idea behind prediction markets. You may think LA is due for The Big One next year, and will likely find a market on that topic. You can trade on yes or no, depending on whether you think the earthquake could happen or not. You’ll find options for making predictions based on other events, too, including hurricanes and tornadoes.
Visit some of the leading prediction market providers online via our links today, including Polymarket and Kalshi, to see which site or app looks most appealing to you. You’ll find many other probabilities in other areas as well, such as politics, geopolitical events, and
sports prediction markets. Since each site offers its own mix of markets, you can consider which one offers natural disaster predictions along with other topics.
Top Market Prediction Sites
Trading on Natural Disasters FAQs
🌪️ Can You Participate in Prediction Markets Based on Natural Disasters?
Yes - you will find various prediction markets that focus on natural disasters, such as the likelihood of a certain event occurring in a certain month or by the end of the year. If your prediction is correct, you will receive $1 for every share you purchased for your prediction.
🌀 What Counts As a Natural Disaster in Prediction Markets?
You will see varying options at each prediction market site, but to give an example, you might trade on whether there will be a tropical storm in a certain part of the world in a given month. In some cases, you will predict whether the number of hurricanes will be higher than a given number or not.
⚖️ Is It Legal to Trade on Natural Disasters in the US?
Prediction markets fall under the remit of the CFTC - the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. This is a Federal organization that regulates all financial services within the United States. Since prediction markets do not involve betting, they are regulated by the CFTC, which currently allows such sites to operate nationwide.
For guidance on responsible trading and risk awareness, the following free official resources are available:
To make sure you get accurate and helpful information, this guide has been edited by
Mac Douglass
as part of our fact-checking process.
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