Latest Prediction Market Updates (10/02/2026)
- New York and Polymarket Trade Lawsuits (September 24):
, alleging it operates an unlicensed gambling business in the state. Polymarket filed its own federal case hours later, arguing that the CFTC has exclusive authority over its event contracts.
- CFTC Warns on Mention Markets (September 22):
The CFTC says contracts based on what someone says, attends or does can carry heightened manipulation risks. Exchanges must show these markets aren't readily susceptible to manipulation before listing them.
- Appeals Court Restricts Kalshi on Tribal Lands (September 16):
The Ninth Circuit has blocked Kalshi from offering sports-event contracts on the lands of two California tribes while their legal challenge continues. The ruling doesn’t resolve the wider dispute over federal and tribal authority.
- Prediction Markets Intensify Sportsbook Competition (September 21):
Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig are increasing their football-season marketing as they compete with traditional sportsbooks. DraftKings and FanDuel are responding with stronger rewards and prediction-market plans of their own.
- Rothera Expands Sports Markets (September 17):
show new Rothera contracts covering the Presidents Cup and NCAA Tournament were certified on September 17. The filings include tournament-winner, advancement and match-based markets.
Comparing the Best Prediction Market Sites in the USA
Not every prediction market platform is built for the same kind of trader, and the right one for you comes down to what you want to trade and how you want to fund your account.
The comparison table below outlines the standout features and primary market focus of today's top platforms, from regulated US economic order books to global decentralized networks and dedicated sports contracts, so you can find the best fit for your capital.
| Prediction Market App | Standout Trading Feature | Market Focus & Asset Classes |
| Crypto.com | Seamless fiat-to-crypto instant conversion right inside the event trading ticket. | Natively traded crypto assets, short-term coin price movements, macroeconomic events, and major sports. |
| Kalshi | Legal, regulated institutional order books with deep liquidity for US economic indicators. | Comprehensive US macroeconomics (Fed rates, inflation), climate tracking, government statistics, and pop culture. |
| Polymarket | Global peer-to-peer liquidity running on decentralized blockchain rails. | Global geopolitics, international elections, pop culture, crypto ecosystem milestones, and breaking global news. |
| Robinhood | Standardized, low-barrier retail mobile interface for macro and live sports event contracts. | High-visibility US presidential elections and core US economic indicators (such as CPI and employment numbers). |
| Underdog | Gamified team asset interface bringing CFTC-regulated sports event contracts to users in non-sports betting states. | Strictly focused on sports event contracts (point spreads, totals, moneylines) |
| PrizePicks | Structured combination contracts allowing users to stack player fantasy projections with team-based "Yes/No" macro event contracts. | Sports point totals, team wins, pop culture milestones, and award shows, currently powered via Kalshi, with a Polymarket integration announced but not yet confirmed live. |
| Fanatics Markets | Tiered FanCash rebate program returning up to 40% on high-volume trading, plus loyalty rewards across the wider Fanatics ecosystem. | Deep focus on major league sports, alongside cryptocurrency movements, mainstream politics, and finance. |
| OG | Real-time price discovery with margin trading in development, pending CFTC certification. | Volatile crypto asset benchmarks, tech/AI milestones, and specialized sports derivative data. |
| FanDuel Predicts | Cross-asset combination and multi-leg derivative contracts. | All-encompassing retail hub for sports, commodities, inflation, entertainment awards, and Bitcoin. |
| Coinbase | Direct wallet connectivity and tokenized utility routing for Web3 on-chain prediction protocols. | Functioning primarily as a bridge to decentralized platforms and asset custody; does not clear a proprietary engine. |
| DraftKings Predict | Now running on DraftKings' own in-house exchange, DKeX (launched June 2026), with a sportsbook-style interface for users switching over from traditional betting lines. | Exclusively major league sports matchups, championship winners, and entertainment award shows. |
| Sleeper Markets | Consumer interface offering sports contracts powered natively by Kalshi's backend integration. | Specialized sports league outcomes, team match wins, and point spreads. |
| MooMoo | Kalshi-integrated retail portal embedding binary event trading alongside core equities tracking. | Primary US economic data, Federal Reserve interest rate predictions, and domestic policy shifts. |
| ROLR | Real-money consumer event trading brand backed by Crypto.com CDNA integration. | Global sports leagues, competitive gaming/esports outcomes, and mainstream pop-culture events. |
| Gemini | Built using regulated infrastructure for compliant, crypto-centric retail event contract execution. | Crypto price brackets, layer-1 ecosystem milestones, and digital asset regulatory timelines. |
| WeBull | Direct Kalshi routing infrastructure embedded natively into an active-trader brokerage platform. | US economic indicator contracts, inflation metrics, and major sport championship results. |
| Interactive Brokers | Native execution routing across Kalshi, ForecastEx, and CME Group via a professional financial suite. | Core institutional metrics: central bank policy, GDP benchmarks, global climate tracking data, and cross-exchange price comparison. |
The Top Prediction Market Apps Reviewed
Even in a young and fast-moving industry, a handful of prediction market platforms have already separated themselves from the pack, each carving out its own strengths in market depth, regulation, or ease of use.
Below, we dig into the standout prediction market apps worth your attention, covering what each one does well, where it falls short, and who it's actually built for, so you can find the right fit before you trade a single contract.
Crypto.com
Crypto.com: Pros & Cons
- Competition-based promotions
- iOS & Android apps
- Minimalist website design
- Beginner-friendly
Operating as a CFTC-regulated prediction market framework under Crypto.com Derivatives North America (CDNA), this platform allows users to trade binary "Yes/No" event contracts across politics, economic indicators, and sports. Rather than functioning solely as a standalone app, CDNA serves as a core exchange and clearing hub, powering both Crypto.com's dedicated "OG" Prediction Markets app and providing the underlying clearing architecture for major consumer partners like FanDuel Predicts.
Trading on the app is straightforward, with contracts settling cleanly at $1 or $0. It’s ideal if you want to hedge against major news events or test your intuition in a transparent, fully collateralized environment. Keep an eye on the dedicated OG app, which is specifically optimized for deeper event-trading and faster market discovery across sports and cultural markets.
Read our full
Crypto.com review here.
Kalshi
Kalshi: Pros & Cons
- Fully CFTC-regulated exchange
- Diverse markets including sports, politics, and economics
- Supports PayPal, Venmo, and Crypto deposits
- Highly rated mobile app for iOS and Android
- Trading fees apply to both makers and takers
- Bank withdrawals can take several business days
Kalshi stands out as a premier CFTC-regulated prediction market in the United States, utilizing a Direct Fiat USD Exchange architecture. This setup allows users to trade binary event contracts directly in U.S. dollars using traditional bank transfers (ACH), wire transfers, or cash balances, with settlements clearing cleanly in USD without requiring cryptocurrency wallets or blockchain gas fees. Operating under strict federal oversight, the platform provides segregated customer funds and a stock market-style order book that feels familiar to traditional investors.
Beyond its core event contracts on elections, weather, macroeconomics, and sports, Kalshi offers Bitcoin perpetual futures alongside its traditional event-trading products. Its focus on regulatory compliance, high-integrity order books, and direct fiat clearing makes it an excellent choice for traders prioritizing safety and ease of use.
Read our full
Kalshi review here.
Polymarket
Pros and Cons of Polymarket
- Licensed by CFTC
- Covers various real-life events
- Dedicated mobile app
Following its return to the U.S. market, Polymarket operates as a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market under "Polymarket US" (achieved via its acquisition of licensed exchange entity QCX). Unlike direct-fiat competitors, Polymarket US operates a USDC Stablecoin Framework order book. While fully regulated for U.S. traders, account funding requires onboarding digital dollar stablecoins (USDC) onto the platform's clearing layer.
The platform continues to operate on blockchain infrastructure, primarily using USDC stablecoins for trading, which requires some familiarity with cryptocurrency from its users. The platform remains a leader in the industry by offering a
Polymarket promo
as well as an extensive range of markets across politics, culture, sports, and global events. Its liquidity is particularly strong, especially for high-profile, news-driven questions, making it appealing for users seeking diverse choices and sharp pricing.
The platform remains a global leader in liquidity and volume across politics, culture, sports, and macroeconomic events. Backed by institutional capital—including a $2 billion commitment from ICE—Polymarket US enforces enhanced regulatory guardrails, including identity verification and strict prohibitions on insider trading, making it a top destination for traders seeking sharp pricing and deep order-book liquidity.
Read our full
Polymarket review here.
Robinhood
Robinhood: Pros and Cons
- Fully regulated via CFTC oversight
- Integrated into the main Robinhood app
- 4 billion+ contracts traded within its first year
- Event contracts blocked in Maryland, sports contracts blocked in Nevada
The platform has significantly expanded its footprint in the prediction markets landscape by offering
Robinhood promos
as well as a native, direct access to CFTC-regulated event contracts right inside its primary app. Built on a Direct Fiat USD Exchange framework, the platform completely bypasses crypto wallets and stablecoins; retail investors can fund binary "Yes/No" trades directly in U.S. dollars using ACH transfers or existing brokerage cash balances.
While seeing massive volume spikes on high-profile sports matchups, Robinhood’s market scope spans political outcomes, macroeconomic data releases, and corporate milestones. To maintain strict federal compliance amidst surging user engagement, Robinhood enforces automated verification checks and rigorous geo-fencing, requiring users to be physically located within an approved U.S. jurisdiction to trade or utilize early cash-out features.Read our full Robinhood review here.
Read our full
Robinhood review here.
Underdog Predicts
Underdog: Pros and Cons
- Available in 38 states + DC
- Wide range of prediction markets
- Awesome mobile app
- Quality customer support
Underdog Predicts has successfully expanded beyond daily fantasy into a versatile prediction market platform, operating as a federally compliant entity following its milestone acquisition of the CFTC-registered Aristotle Exchange. Powered by a Direct Fiat USD Exchange architecture, users trade binary outcome contracts directly in U.S. dollars using standard bank transfers (ACH) or cash account balances, settling cleanly in USD without crypto wallets or gas fees.
Our
Underdog Predicts review
found the platform that bridges the gap between sports fandom and financial trading, offering real-time pricing on sports, macroeconomics, entertainment awards, and financial trends. The backend engine updates contract prices immediately as breaking news drops, eliminating pricing lag. For users seeking a unified, secure ecosystem to trade opinions on sports and global events, Underdog Predicts provides a reliable, straightforward platform.
Read our full
Underdog promo code
page here
PrizePicks Predicts
PrizePicks: Pros and Cons
- Available in 48 states and DC
- User-friendly mobile app
- Helpful customer support
Operating under an Exchange Routing & Joint Venture framework, PrizePicks Predicts functions as a federally approved Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) under CFTC guidelines. Rather than hosting an isolated order book, the app acts as a consumer-facing front end, routing binary "Yes/No" event contracts through underlying CFTC-regulated exchange clearing infrastructure (such as Kalshi and Polymarket). Apart from the general
Prizepicks promo, what we believe truly sets this platform apart is its integration of non-sports markets through dedicated Culture Picks, allowing participants to predict outcomes within entertainment, such as music charts and major awards ceremonies.
This structure allows PrizePicks Predicts to offer event contracts across major sports leagues alongside popular Culture Picks in entertainment and music charts. Users can even combine these event contracts with classic player stat projections into single "Power Play" lineups to unlock higher payout multipliers. With optimized mobile data feeds driving dynamic price updates, PrizePicks Predicts bridges pop culture and sports with formal derivatives contracts.
Read our full
Prizepicks Predicts review here.
Fanatics Markets
Fanatics: Pros and Cons
- Available in 23 states
- Wide variety of prediction markets
- Excellent mobile apps
- Nice welcome offer
Fanatics Markets turns mainstream fan engagement into tradeable event contracts through a licensed FCM and exchange routing architecture. Leveraging the massive Fanatics brand, the platform connects directly with direct fiat USD payment rails, allowing users to fund trades seamlessly using standard banking methods while earning integrated FanCash rewards on every trade.
The mobile interface avoids data-dense financial order books in favor of a visual layout that lets users track market velocity, purchase contracts, and exit positions effortlessly. Covering game-day player metrics, cultural events, and macro trends, Fanatics Markets combines institutional backing and deep liquidity with an industry-exclusive loyalty program that traditional prediction platforms simply cannot match. To find out more about the different rewards available, be sure to check out our
Fanatics promo code
page.
Read our full
Fanatics Markets review here.
OG
OG: Pros and Cons
- Secure and regulated by the CFTC
- No user limiting on trades
- Wide range of market categories
- Welcome bonus for new traders
- Sports contracts are restricted in some states
OG (operated under Crypto.com Derivatives North America / CDNA) functions as a foundational, CFTC-regulated exchange architecture built specifically for prediction markets. Beyond its standalone trading app, OG serves as an institutional clearing backbone—providing the primary exchange layer that powers sports, culture, and entertainment event contracts for major consumer joint ventures like FanDuel Predicts.
The platform uses proprietary technology engineered for rapid price discovery across economic, climate, political, and sports event contracts. Contract values adjust instantly based on crowd probability and breaking news. New traders have access to an
OG promo, and the interface also feels natural and works beautifully on mobile, making it easy to track market volume and manage your positions without any lag.
Read our full
OG review here.
FanDuel Predicts
FanDuel Predicts: Pros and Cons
- Features various markets
- Safe for US players
- Extended daily customer support hours
FanDuel Predicts operates as a nationwide event-trading app built on an Exchange Routing & Joint Venture framework. Functioning as a consumer-facing FCM interface, the platform routes macroeconomic and financial event contracts through CME Group clearing infrastructure, while routing sports, pop culture, and entertainment contracts through Crypto.com's OG Prediction Markets exchange.
New traders can claim a generous
FanDuel promo, and instantly access markets across economy, politics, crypto, sports events, pop culture milestones, and major news events. A recent, massive structural upgrade has significantly altered the application's competitive position. This dual-exchange routing setup enables FanDuel Predicts to offer combination event contracts, allowing traders to build parlay-style positions across disparate financial, entertainment, and sports milestones. Trades clear seamlessly in USD without crypto mechanics, giving retail users a powerful, regulated environment to trade real-world event contracts.
Read our full
FanDuel Predicts review here.
What Are Prediction Markets and How Do They Work?
A prediction market attaches a tradable price to a future outcome. Instead of accepting a price set by a sportsbook, participants buy and sell event contracts through an exchange, with prices moving as traders react to new information.
Most contracts ask a clearly defined “Yes” or “No” question, such as whether the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates at its next meeting. Some markets have several possible results, but each outcome is usually represented by its own contract.
On CFTC-regulated U.S. platforms, these contracts operate as financial derivatives under federal oversight. That distinction does not make every platform or contract available nationwide, however. Access can differ by state, contract category and provider, particularly for sports-event markets.
The Prediction Market Cycle
The complete process runs from defining the question to paying the final contract holder:
- The Market Is Created:
The exchange publishes a specific question, trading deadline and settlement terms. The wording should explain exactly what must happen for each outcome to win.
- A Resolution Source Is Named:
Every market identifies the source that will determine the result. This could be an official league record, government data release, certified election result or company announcement.
- Contracts Begin Trading:
Participants place orders for the available outcomes. In an exchange-style market, the platform brings buyers and sellers together rather than taking a financial position on the result itself.
- The Market Establishes a Price:
Contracts normally trade between $0.01 and $0.99. A “Yes” price of $0.35 suggests that traders currently assign the outcome an implied probability of roughly 35%.
- New Information Moves the Market:
Prices can change as reports, announcements, injuries, economic data or other developments alter how participants assess the outcome.
- Traders Hold or Sell:
A position can normally be held until the market resolves or sold earlier at an available price. Whether an early sale fills depends on market liquidity and the orders placed by other traders.
- The Contract Settles:
Once the named source confirms the result, winning contracts typically settle at $1 and losing contracts at $0.
Prediction Market Example
As an example, let’s say that a market asks: “Will the Federal Reserve lower its target interest rate at its December meeting?”
The “Yes” contract is trading at $0.35, giving it an implied probability of approximately 35%. You purchase 100 contracts for $35 before fees.
- If the Federal Reserve lowers the rate under the conditions stated in the contract, your position settles for $100. That leaves a gross profit of $65.
- If it does not, the contracts settle at $0 and you lose the $35 purchase cost.
- If expectations change and the contract rises to $0.58 before the meeting, you could attempt to sell for $58. If the order is filled, that would produce a gross profit of $23 without waiting for the final decision.
Fees and the difference between buying and selling prices would reduce those figures, so the displayed contract price should not be mistaken for the complete cost of a trade.
Does the Contract Price Equal the Real Probability?
A contract’s price shows what participating traders collectively believe at that moment. It is not an objective forecast or a guarantee.
Prices can be affected by breaking news, market sentiment, large individual orders and the amount of trading activity. Thin markets may have wider gaps between the highest buying price and lowest selling price, making it harder to enter or exit at the figure displayed on the page. “Yes” and “No” prices may also add up to slightly more than $1 once spreads and trading costs are considered.
How Prediction Market Results Are Decided
The settlement rules take priority over what a trader assumes the question means. For example, an economic contract might use a specific Bureau of Labor Statistics release, while a sports contract could rely on the result published by the relevant league.
Once that source confirms the outcome, the exchange applies its rules and settles the contracts. Markets affected by cancellations, reporting errors or genuinely unclear outcomes are handled according to the exchange’s published review and dispute procedures.
This is why traders should read the full question, deadline, resolution source and cancellation terms before opening a position. Being broadly right about what happened may not be enough if the outcome does not meet the contract’s precise conditions.
What Does It Cost to Use a Prediction Market?
The contract price isn’t always the final amount you’ll pay. Prediction market platforms can apply different charges, while activity in the order book can affect the price at which your trade is completed. These are the main costs to check when comparing sites:
| Potential cost | What to look for |
| Trading fees | Some platforms charge when you open or close a position, while others calculate fees according to the contract price or order type. |
| Bid-ask spread | The price available to buyers may be higher than the amount sellers are currently offering. A wider gap makes it more expensive to enter and immediately exit a market. |
| Low liquidity | A market with few active orders may not have enough contracts available at your preferred price. Larger trades can therefore be completed across several price levels. |
| Payment charges | Card deposits, instant transfers, crypto conversions or withdrawals may carry separate fees that have nothing to do with the contract itself. |
Before confirming an order, review the platform’s fee preview and open the order book. Check the best available buying and selling prices, how many contracts are available at each level and whether your full order can be completed without pushing you into a less favorable price.
A platform advertising low trading fees is not automatically the cheapest option. Tight spreads, active markets and fee-free funding can sometimes save more than a small difference in commission. For a closer look at each of these costs, check out our guide to
fees, slippage and liquidity in event trading.
Different Prediction Markets & Examples
One of the most enjoyable things about using the best prediction market sites is just how much variety you get in terms of what you make predictions on.
Sports Predictions
The prediction markets model has proven to be perfectly suited to sports fans. Here are some examples of the
sports predictions
that have recently appeared at these sites:
- 2027 NFL Champion
- English Premier League Champion
- College Football National Championship Winner
Politics Predictions
The world of politics has been getting people pretty fired up over the past decade, so it’s no surprise it's a prominent category. Check out some of the recent popular
politics predictions:
- Who will be Trump’s next Press Secretary?
- Will the Anaheim Angels naming bill become law?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Economics Predictions
Trading on the economy might not sound like a lot of fun, but it is growing hugely popular. Here are some
economic prediction markets
that have gained a lot of traction in recent times:
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?
- How high will US gas prices get this year?
Culture and Entertainment Predictions
Chances are that you won’t be able to bet on entertainment at regular online sportsbooks, but it’s hugely popular at prediction market sites. Here are just some examples of the
culture prediction markets
that you could be trading:
- Dancing with the Stars Season 35 Winner
- Top Daily Music Video Global on YouTube
- Next James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
Weather Predictions
One of the most popular prediction markets is the climate, where you can purchase contracts on the weather. This might sound a little odd, but recent climate changes have added an element of drama to this topic, and here are some examples of the
climate predictions
you could be making:
- Number of tornadoes this month?
- What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
Open Kalshi
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at http://kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Open Polymarket
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading involves high risk and may result in loss of your entire investment. See polymarket.us/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange and clearing organization.
Open Underdog
Trading involves risk, including total loss on positions. Trading decisions and their consequences are your sole responsibility. Nothing on underdogexchange.com constitutes a recommendation, solicitation, or offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. UDX is subject to CFTC regulatory oversight. Promotion issued by affiliate.
The Legality of Prediction Markets in the US
The legal architecture supporting U.S. prediction markets operates at the intersection of federal commodities law and state gaming regulations. Platforms operating under direct Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversight—such as Kalshi, Crypto.com Derivatives North America (CDNA), and Polymarket US (via its acquired QCEX exchange license)—maintain that event contracts are federally regulated financial derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act.
However, state gaming control boards and tribal gaming authorities frequently challenge this preemption, arguing that sports-based or consumer event contracts constitute unlicensed gambling within their state borders. Consequently, platform availability varies significantly by state, and individual exchanges enforce strict geolocation boundary checks and automated identity verification (KYC) to comply with regional jurisdictional rulings.
Legal Status by State
Prediction markets draw increasing attention from state lawmakers and regulators across the U.S. While some jurisdictions are exploring new restrictions or broader gambling definitions that could apply to these platforms, others remain in a monitoring phase without taking formal action.
| State | Last Update | Current Legal Status |
| Alabama | September 7, 2026 | No Specific State Action: No prediction-market-specific statute, court order, or direct state enforcement action was identified. |
| Alaska | September 7, 2026 | No Specific State Action: No prediction-market-specific statute, court order, or direct state enforcement action was identified. |
| Arizona | September 7, 2026 | Ongoing: A federal court issued a preliminary injunction on May 5 preventing Arizona from prosecuting Kalshi under its gambling laws while litigation continues. Arizona appealed the order to the Ninth Circuit. |
| Arkansas | September 7, 2026 | No Specific State Action: No prediction-market-specific statute, court order, or direct state enforcement action was identified. |
| California | September 7, 2026 | Ongoing Tribal Case: Three California tribes appealed the denial of an injunction against Kalshi and Robinhood, with the Ninth Circuit hearing arguments on July 10 but issuing no decision yet. California’s Attorney General also joined a multistate brief supporting Ohio’s regulatory authority. |
| Colorado | September 7, 2026 | State Opposition: Colorado’s Attorney General joined a multistate submission arguing that states retain authority over sports-related prediction markets. No direct Colorado enforcement order has been identified. |
| Connecticut | September 7, 2026 | Restricted and Ongoing: A federal judge denied Kalshi’s request to block Connecticut enforcement in August, leaving the state’s cease-and-desist order in place. Connecticut filed a separate lawsuit against Kalshi on August 26 seeking an injunction against its unlicensed sports markets. |
| Delaware | September 7, 2026 | No Specific State Action: No prediction-market-specific statute, court order, or direct state enforcement action was identified. |
| Florida | September 7, 2026 | No Specific State Action: No prediction-market-specific statute, court order, or direct state enforcement action was identified. |
| Georgia | September 7, 2026 | No Specific State Action: No prediction-market-specific statute, court order, or direct state enforcement action was identified. |
| Hawaii | September 7, 2026 | No Enacted Restriction: HB 2198 would have expressly classified specified prediction contracts as gambling, but it did not become law during the 2026 session. |
| Idaho | September 7, 2026 | No Specific State Action: No prediction-market-specific statute, court order, or direct state enforcement action was identified. |
| Illinois | September 7, 2026 | Restricted and Ongoing: The Illinois Gaming Board’s cease-and-desist orders against Kalshi, Robinhood, Crypto.com, and Polymarket remain part of an unresolved federal-state jurisdiction dispute. The CFTC’s April lawsuit challenging Illinois enforcement is still pending. |
| Indiana | September 7, 2026 | No Specific State Action: No prediction-market-specific statute, court order, or direct state enforcement action was identified. |
| Iowa | September 7, 2026 | Ongoing: Kalshi filed a federal lawsuit in March seeking to prevent Iowa officials from applying state gambling and election-wagering laws to its contracts. No final ruling or injunction has been identified. |
| Kansas | September 7, 2026 | No Specific State Action: No prediction-market-specific statute, court order, or direct state enforcement action was identified. |
| Kentucky | September 7, 2026 | Ongoing: Kentucky filed civil enforcement actions against CFTC-regulated platforms and created a special transaction fee applying to designated contract markets. The CFTC sued Kentucky on June 23 to block those measures. |
| Louisiana | September 7, 2026 | Restricted: The Louisiana Gaming Control Board’s December 2025 advisory treats sports-related event contracts as illegal sports wagering. The notice primarily warns Louisiana licensees against facilitating or partnering with prediction-market operators. |
| Maine | September 7, 2026 | No Specific State Action: No prediction-market-specific statute, court order, or direct state enforcement action was identified. |
| Maryland | September 7, 2026 | Restricted and Ongoing: Maryland regulators issued cease-and-desist orders, and a federal judge denied Kalshi’s request to block enforcement in August 2025. Kalshi’s Fourth Circuit appeal remains pending following May 2026 arguments. |
| Massachusetts | September 7, 2026 | Ongoing: A state court granted Massachusetts a preliminary injunction against Kalshi’s sports contracts in January, but the order remains stayed during Kalshi’s appeal. The Supreme Judicial Court heard arguments in May and has not issued its decision. |
| Michigan | September 7, 2026 | Restricted: A September 1 preliminary injunction requires Kalshi to block access to sports-event contracts using a third-party geolocation provider licensed by the Michigan Gaming Control Board, with court-confirmed noncompliance carrying a $500,000 daily fine. The CFTC’s earlier order requiring Kalshi to honor open trades remains part of the unresolved state-federal conflict. |
| Minnesota | September 7, 2026 | Available Pending Litigation: A federal judge issued a preliminary injunction preventing Minnesota’s prediction-market ban from taking effect on August 1. The law remains blocked while the federal challenge continues. |
| Mississippi | September 7, 2026 | No Direct Enforcement Identified: State gaming officials have expressed concerns about prediction markets, but no platform-specific prohibition or court order was identified. |
| Missouri | September 7, 2026 | No Specific State Action: No prediction-market-specific statute, court order, or direct state enforcement action was identified. |
| Montana | September 7, 2026 | Restricted and Ongoing: Montana law broadly prohibits online gambling involving money, and state officials directed Kalshi to cease operations under those provisions. Kalshi’s federal challenge to that enforcement remains pending. |
| Nebraska | September 7, 2026 | No Specific State Action: No prediction-market-specific statute, court order, or direct state enforcement action was identified. |
| Nevada | September 7, 2026 | Blocked: The Ninth Circuit ruled on August 28 that Kalshi was unlikely to show federal law preempts Nevada’s regulation of its sports contracts. Nevada’s injunction remains operative, while the treatment of election contracts was returned to the district court for further consideration. |
| New Hampshire | September 7, 2026 | No Specific State Action: No prediction-market-specific statute, court order, or direct state enforcement action was identified. |
| New Jersey | September 7, 2026 | Available Pending Supreme Court Review: The Third Circuit upheld a preliminary injunction preventing New Jersey from enforcing its gambling laws against Kalshi’s sports contracts. New Jersey petitioned the U.S. Supreme Court for review on September 2. |
| New Mexico | September 7, 2026 | Ongoing: New Mexico sued Kalshi in June, alleging that its sports contracts constitute unlawful online sports wagering. The CFTC responded with a federal lawsuit challenging the state’s authority, and neither case has produced a final ruling. |
| New York | September 7, 2026 | Ongoing: A federal judge denied Kalshi’s request to block New York gambling enforcement, and the state later sued for an injunction, penalties, forfeiture, and restitution. The CFTC subsequently ordered Kalshi to continue operating consistently with its federal obligations, leaving the jurisdictional clash unresolved. |
| North Carolina | September 7, 2026 | Available and Taxed: North Carolina enacted a 6% tax on prediction-market operators’ net trading-fee revenue from in-state transactions, effective January 1, 2027. The law imposes a tax rather than a separate state licensing requirement. |
| North Dakota | September 7, 2026 | No Specific State Action: No prediction-market-specific statute, court order, or direct state enforcement action was identified. |
| Ohio | September 7, 2026 | Restricted and Ongoing: A federal judge denied Kalshi’s request to prevent Ohio from enforcing its gambling laws against sports contracts. The Sixth Circuit heard Kalshi’s appeal on July 30 but has not issued a decision. |
| Oklahoma | September 7, 2026 | No Specific State Action: No prediction-market-specific statute, court order, or direct state enforcement action was identified. |
| Oregon | September 7, 2026 | No Direct Enforcement Identified: State officials have raised concerns about prediction markets, but no platform-specific injunction or prohibition was identified. |
| Pennsylvania | September 7, 2026 | State Opposition: The Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board maintains that sports-related prediction contracts constitute illegal sports wagering under state law. Its published action remains regulatory advocacy rather than a platform-specific enforcement order. |
| Rhode Island | September 7, 2026 | Ongoing: Rhode Island sued Kalshi and Polymarket in May, seeking to classify their sports contracts as state-regulated gambling and obtain a permanent injunction. The CFTC filed a separate federal challenge to Rhode Island’s enforcement position. |
| South Carolina | September 7, 2026 | No Specific State Action: No prediction-market-specific statute, court order, or direct state enforcement action was identified. |
| South Dakota | September 7, 2026 | No Specific State Action: No prediction-market-specific statute, court order, or direct state enforcement action was identified. |
| Tennessee | September 7, 2026 | Available Pending Appeal: A federal preliminary injunction currently prevents Tennessee from enforcing its gaming laws against Kalshi’s sports contracts. The Sixth Circuit heard Tennessee’s appeal on July 30 but has not ruled. |
| Texas | September 7, 2026 | No Specific State Action: No prediction-market-specific statute, court order, or direct state enforcement action was identified. |
| Utah | September 7, 2026 | Restricted: Utah law prohibits specified sports proposition contracts, and an August federal ruling rejected Kalshi’s attempt to prevent state enforcement. The judgment allows Utah to apply its anti-gambling laws while any further appeal proceeds. |
| Vermont | September 7, 2026 | No Enacted Restriction: H.913 proposed restrictions on specified prediction-market contracts but did not advance into law during the 2026 session. |
| Virginia | September 7, 2026 | No Specific State Action: No prediction-market-specific statute, court order, or direct state enforcement action was identified. |
| Washington | September 7, 2026 | Blocked: A Washington court granted a preliminary injunction after finding that Kalshi likely violated the state’s Gambling Act and Consumer Protection Act. The resulting geofencing requirement remains in force while litigation continues. |
| West Virginia | September 7, 2026 | No Specific State Action: No prediction-market-specific statute, court order, or direct state enforcement action was identified. |
| Wisconsin | September 7, 2026 | Restricted and Ongoing: Wisconsin sued several prediction-market operators in April, and the CFTC responded with its own federal lawsuit. A federal judge denied the CFTC’s request to halt Wisconsin enforcement in July, leaving the state free to proceed while the cases continue. |
| Wyoming | September 7, 2026 | No Specific State Action: No prediction-market-specific statute, court order, or direct state enforcement action was identified. |
How to Start Trading Prediction Markets
While there are many prediction market sites, they all work in a fairly similar manner. This means that you’ll usually just have to take the following steps to make your predictions:
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Choose one of the recommended prediction market apps on this page.
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Create your customer account by filling in the registration form with personal details like your name, home address and date of birth.
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Verify your identity by submitting the required government-issued photo ID as well as your social security number.
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Go to the cashier page and make an opening deposit with one of the accepted payment methods.
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Browse the available prediction markets and buy one or more contracts by clicking on the 'Yes' or 'No' tab.
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Wait until the event has settled, and then if you've won your prediction, you'll be able to make a withdrawal back to the payment method used for making your deposits.
The biggest platform isn’t automatically the best one for every trader. Before opening an account, compare how each site handles the markets, costs and features you’ll actually use.
Check Both Platform and Market Availability
Access can differ by state, platform and contract category. A site may accept registrations in your state while restricting certain sports or event contracts, so check the current eligibility rules before depositing.
Compare the Complete Trading Cost
The advertised transaction fee is only part of the picture. Look at maker and taker charges, deposit costs, withdrawal fees and the gap between available buying and selling prices. Even small costs can add up if you trade frequently.
Look at Liquidity in Your Preferred Markets
A platform can carry hundreds of contracts without having strong activity in all of them. Higher liquidity generally makes it easier to enter or exit a position near the displayed price. Check the order book for the specific sports, political or economic markets you intend to follow.
Read the Settlement Rules First
Every contract should name the conditions that determine the outcome, the information source used for verification and the expected settlement date. A catchy market question means very little if the detailed rules leave room for a different interpretation.
Choose Funding Methods That Suit You
Some prediction market sites focus on standard US-dollar payments, while others are connected to brokerage or cryptocurrency accounts. Compare minimum deposits, supported payment methods and expected withdrawal times before choosing a platform.
The right prediction market site is ultimately the one that provides suitable contracts, understandable fees and reliable access where you live. Start with a small position while you learn how its pricing, order book and settlement process work.
Prediction Markets Pros & Cons
Prediction markets and
online sportsbooks
both focus on forecasting outcomes, but they differ significantly in how prices are set, where they’re available, and what users can trade. For some players, prediction markets offer greater flexibility and transparency, while sportsbooks still lead in familiarity and promotions.
Pros and Cons
- Available in more U.S. states than regulated sportsbooks
- Wider range of non-sports markets
- Exit a position early instead of waiting for the event to end
- Transparent, published fees instead of built-in odds
- Regulatory landscape still evolving state by state
- Fewer sign-up bonuses and ongoing promos than sportsbooks
- Newer platforms with shorter track records
Conclusion ─ Trade at Prediction Market Sites
Prediction markets make it possible to take a position on real-world events and respond as new information changes the contract price. However, the experience can vary sharply between platforms. Market availability, liquidity, fees, payment methods and settlement rules all affect how easily you can open, manage and close a position.
Compare the leading prediction market sites based on the contracts you actually want to trade, not simply the size of their overall catalog. Check that your preferred markets are available where you live, read the resolution criteria and understand the complete cost before committing funds. Once you’ve found a suitable platform, start small while you become familiar with its pricing and trading tools.
1.
Open Kalshi
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at http://kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
2.
Deposit $10 get a $25 Trading Bonus
Open Polymarket
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading involves high risk and may result in loss of your entire investment. See polymarket.us/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange and clearing organization.
3.
Open Prophet X Predictions
4.
First time deposit match up to $1,000 in Bonus Funds
Open Underdog
Trading involves risk, including total loss on positions. Trading decisions and their consequences are your sole responsibility. Nothing on underdogexchange.com constitutes a recommendation, solicitation, or offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. UDX is subject to CFTC regulatory oversight. Promotion issued by affiliate.
5.
Deposit $10 Get $50 in Trade Credits!
Prediction Markets FAQ
⚖️ Is Polymarket Legal in the US?
Yes. Polymarket returned to the US market in late 2025 after acquiring a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange QCEX. US users must trade through Polymarket US specifically, as the original offshore Polymarket platform remains geo-blocked for US IP addresses.
⚠️ Are Prediction Markets Risky?
Yes. Prediction markets involve financial risk, and there is always the possibility of losing money. Outcomes are inherently uncertain, so it's important to use reputable platforms and only trade amounts you're comfortable risking.
🆚 What's the Difference Between Prediction Markets and Sports Betting?
Sports betting works against a bookmaker who sets fixed odds and profits when you lose. Prediction markets work more like a stock exchange, as you're trading contracts against other users, prices move based on supply and demand, and you can buy or sell your position at any time before the event resolves.
🔞 What's the Minimum Age to Trade on Prediction Markets?
Most major prediction market platforms, including Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood, require users to be at least 18 years old.
💰 Do You Have to Pay Taxes on Prediction Market Winnings?
Yes. Profits from trading event contracts are generally treated as taxable income in the US. Reporting requirements can vary by platform, and not all operators issue the same tax forms, so it's worth keeping your own trading records and speaking with a tax professional about how your specific gains should be reported. CFTC-regulated U.S. exchanges and brokerage interfaces issue annual tax documents (such as Form 1099-B, Form 1099-MISC, or Form 1099-K) summarizing total gross proceeds, realized gains, and transaction fees once specific IRS reporting thresholds are reached.
💵 Can You Actually Make Money Trading Prediction Markets?
It's possible, but not guaranteed. Contract prices reflect the market's collective probability estimate, so to consistently make a profit requires being right more often than the crowd, not just picking outcomes you feel good about. Like any form of trading, prediction markets carry real financial risk, and you should only trade money you can afford to lose.
For guidance on responsible trading and risk awareness, the following free official resources are available:
To make sure you get accurate and helpful information, this guide has been edited by
Mac Douglass
as part of our fact-checking process.
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