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Tigres UANL vs. Toluca prediction, odds, Liga MX Semi-Final picks [12/11/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Tigres UANL vs Toluca predictions for Liga MX Thursday.
Tigres UANL will take on Toluca in the Liga MX playoffs on Thursday, beginning at 9:00PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced Liga MX model projects Tigres UANL as the most likely winner of the Tigres UANL vs. Toluca game.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Tigres UANL vs. Toluca prediction: Who will win?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Thursday's Liga MX matchup between Tigres UANL and Toluca 10,000 times as part of our Liga MX predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model suggests a 49.5% chance of Tigres UANL winning, a 26.9% chance for Toluca, and a 23.6% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 57% chance of going over, according to our model.
Tigres UANL vs. Toluca odds
We have sourced the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Tigres UANL | Toluca | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +110 | +260 | +250 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -150 | +118 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Tigres UANL vs. Toluca picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tigres UANL | +110 |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 | +118 |
According to our Liga MX best bets, the top play to make on this game is Tigres UANL to win.
Tigres UANL vs. Toluca: Correct score and BTTS predictions
The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| TUA 1-1 TOL | 11% |
| TUA 2-1 TOL | 9.6% |
| TUA 1-0 TOL | 9% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 58.1% chance that both teams scoring, and a 41.9% probability of at least one team being held goalless.
These predictions are based on each team's average score after 10,000 simulations, meaning the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.
Tigres UANL vs. Toluca game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's matchup between Tigres UANL and Toluca is scheduled to start at 9:00PM ET.
- Who: Tigres UANL vs. Toluca
- Date: Thursday, December 11, 2025
- Time: 9:00PM ET/6:00PM PT
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Tigres UANL has a 49.5% win probability on Thursday, Toluca has a 26.9% win probability, and there is a 23.6% chance that the game will end in a draw.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Tigres UANL vs. Toluca insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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