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Necaxa vs. Guadalajara prediction, odds, Liga MX picks [4/22/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Necaxa vs Guadalajara predictions for Liga MX Wednesday.
Necaxa and Guadalajara are scheduled to meet in the Liga MX playoffs at Estadio Victoria on Wednesday, starting at 11:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced Liga MX model predicts Guadalajara as the most likely winner of the Necaxa vs. Guadalajara game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Wednesday's match, including best bets and picks.
Necaxa vs. Guadalajara prediction: Who will win?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Wednesday's Liga MX matchup between Necaxa and Guadalajara, forming part of our Liga MX predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently indicates a 27.4% chance of Necaxa winning, a 48.5% chance for Guadalajara, and a 24.0% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 55% chance of going over, according to our model.
Necaxa vs. Guadalajara odds
We have sourced the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Necaxa | Guadalajara | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +340 | -140 | +300 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -175 | +120 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Necaxa vs. Guadalajara picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Necaxa | +340 |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 | +120 |
According to our Liga MX best bets, the top play to make on this game is Necaxa to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Necaxa vs. Guadalajara: Correct score and BTTS predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| NXA 1-1 GUA | 11.3% |
| NXA 1-2 GUA | 9.5% |
| NXA 0-1 GUA | 9.3% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 57.3% chance of both sides finding the net and a 42.7% chance that at least one doesn’t.
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, meaning the most likely correct score may differ from our predicted winner.
Necaxa vs. Guadalajara game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's game between Necaxa and Guadalajara at Estadio Victoria is scheduled to commence at 11:00 PM ET.
- Who: Necaxa vs. Guadalajara
- Date: Wednesday, April 22, 2026
- Time: 11:00 PM ET/8:00PM PT
- Venue: Estadio Victoria
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Necaxa has a 27.4% win probability on Wednesday, Guadalajara has a 48.5% win probability, and there is a 24.0% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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