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Monterrey vs. Toluca prediction, odds, Liga MX picks [12/3/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Monterrey vs Toluca predictions for Liga MX Wednesday.
Monterrey will take on Toluca in the Liga MX playoffs on Wednesday, starting at 10:10PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven Liga MX model predicts Monterrey as the most likely winner of the Monterrey vs. Toluca game.
This article offers further insights into Wednesday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Monterrey vs. Toluca prediction: Who will win?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Wednesday's Liga MX game between Monterrey and Toluca 10,000 times as part of our Liga MX predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently indicates a 39.0% chance of Monterrey winning, a 37.3% chance for Toluca, and a 23.8% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 60% chance of going over, according to our model.
Monterrey vs. Toluca odds
We have researched the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Monterrey | Toluca | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +170 | +150 | +260 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -144 | +118 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Monterrey vs. Toluca picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Monterrey | +170 |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5 | -144 |
According to our best Liga MX bets, the top play to make on this game is Monterrey to win.
Monterrey vs. Toluca: Correct score and BTTS predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scoresaccording to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| MNT 1-1 TOL | 10.7% |
| MNT 2-1 TOL | 8.5% |
| MNT 1-2 TOL | 8.3% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 62.5% chance of the yes hitting, and a 37.5% probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.
These predictions are based on each team's average score after 10,000 simulations, which means the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.
Monterrey vs. Toluca game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's matchup between Monterrey and Toluca is scheduled to commence at 10:10PM ET.
- Who: Monterrey vs. Toluca
- Date: Wednesday, December 3, 2025
- Time: 10:10PM ET/7:10PM PT
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Monterrey has a 39.0% win probability on Wednesday, Toluca has a 37.3% win probability, and there is a 23.8% chance that the game will end in a draw.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Monterrey vs. Toluca insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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