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Monterrey vs. Toluca Prediction, Odds, Liga MX Picks [5/7/2025]

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Written by Ryan Leaver

Our expert prediction for Wednesday's Monterrey vs Toluca matchup.

Monterrey-Toluca Predictions and Game Preview.
Estadio BBVA sets the stage for the Liga MX matchup between Monterrey and Toluca this Wednesday.

Monterrey will square off with Toluca in the Liga MX playoffs at Estadio BBVA on Wednesday, commencing at 9:00PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced Liga MX model (see Dimers Pro for full access) predicts Monterrey as the most likely winner of today's game.

"Our team has simulated the outcome of Wednesday's Monterrey-Toluca game 10,000 times," said Dave Garofolo from Dimers.

"Taking into account the most current updates and numerous additional factors, our prediction gives Monterrey a 45.3% chance of winning, Toluca a 30.7% chance, and a 24.0% chance of a draw."

For a closer look at Wednesday's matchup, including best bets and picks, visit our interactive Monterrey vs. Toluca predictions page.

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Monterrey vs. Toluca Prediction: Who Will Win?

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Wednesday's Liga MX matchup between Monterrey and Toluca 10,000 times as part of our Liga MX predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model suggests a 45.3% chance of Monterrey winning, a 30.7% chance for Toluca, and a 24.0% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 57% chance of going over, according to our model.

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Monterrey vs. Toluca Odds

We have researched the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Moneyline

Monterrey Toluca Draw
+115 +240 +250

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Under 2.5
-105 -118

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Make the most of your sports betting experience by exploring our comprehensive list of US betting apps, and the latest sportsbooks in 2025, ensuring you never miss a top new-user deal.

Monterrey vs. Toluca Picks and Best Bets

Our model's strongest edge in today's Monterrey vs. Toluca matchup is on the total.

Our expert predictions, aligned with the current odds, reveal the best Liga MX picks and Liga MX best bets for every game throughout the season.

Unlimited access to our complete set of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.

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Monterrey vs. Toluca: Correct Score and BTTS Predictions

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

Final Score Probability
MNT 1-1 TOL 11.1%
MNT 2-1 TOL 9.2%
MNT 1-0 TOL 8.4%

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 59.4% chance that both teams scoring, and a 40.6% probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.

These predictions are based on each team's average score after 10,000 simulations, which means the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.

Monterrey vs. Toluca Game-Day Updates and Essential Details

Wednesday's game between Monterrey and Toluca at Estadio BBVA is scheduled to commence at 9:00PM ET.

  • Who: Monterrey vs. Toluca
  • Date: Wednesday, May 7, 2025
  • Time: 9:00PM ET/6:00PM PT
  • Venue: Estadio BBVA

Dimers.com's full preview of Wednesday's Monterrey vs. Toluca matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.

Before making any Toluca vs. Monterrey picks, be sure to check out the latest Liga MX predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.

Sports Betting Deals Available for Wednesday

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Monterrey has a 45.3% win probability on Wednesday, Toluca has a 30.7% win probability, and there is a 24.0% chance that the game will end in a draw.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Monterrey vs. Toluca insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Note: Clicking links to our partners may earn us a referral fee. Learn about how we review products and services.

More on Liga MX

Keep up with the latest Liga MX betting news and parlay picks throughout the season.

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Written by
Ryan Leaver
Senior Sports and Betting Editor

Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.

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