Guadalajara vs. Toluca prediction, odds, Liga MX picks [7/18/2026]
Get Guadalajara vs Toluca predictions for Liga MX Saturday.
Guadalajara will take on Toluca in Liga MX action at Estadio Akron on Saturday, commencing at 9:07 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced Liga MX model projects Guadalajara as the most likely winner of the Guadalajara vs. Toluca game.
This article offers further insights into Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.
Guadalajara vs. Toluca prediction: Who will win?
Our independent predictive model suggests a 40.9% chance of Guadalajara winning, a 34.3% chance for Toluca, and a 24.8% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 55.0% chance of going over, with a 58.1% probability that both teams find the net.
Guadalajara vs. Toluca odds
We have researched the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Guadalajara | Toluca | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +125 | +210 | +260 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -130 | +117 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Guadalajara vs. Toluca picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Moneyline: Toluca @ +210 via Bet365
- Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +117 via DraftKings
According to our best Liga MX bets, the top play to make on this game is Toluca to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Guadalajara vs. Toluca: Correct score and BTTS predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| GUA 1-1 TOL | 11.6% |
| GUA 2-1 TOL | 8.8% |
| GUA 1-0 TOL | 8.5% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 58.1% chance of both sides finding the net and a 41.9% chance that at least one doesn’t.
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, meaning the most likely correct score may differ from our predicted winner.
Guadalajara vs. Toluca game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's game between Guadalajara and Toluca at Estadio Akron is scheduled to begin at 9:07 PM ET.
- Who: Guadalajara vs. Toluca
- Date: Saturday, July 18, 2026
- Time: 9:07 PM ET/6:07PM PT
- Venue: Estadio Akron
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Guadalajara has a 40.9% win probability on Saturday, Toluca has a 34.3% win probability, and there is a 24.8% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
